- TRUMP, once a headline-making launch, now finds itself in turbulent waters.
- Is it the first crack of thunder before a steeper fall?
The Official Trump [TRUMP] memecoin, launched on the 17th of January 2025, has recently experienced a significant token unlock event.
On the 18th of April, the market released 40 million TRUMP tokens, valued at approximately $300 million.
These tokens account for 20% of the current circulating supply and 4% of the total supply, which will reach 1 billion tokens over the next three years.
However, structurally, TRUMP has exhibited severe price degradation, retracing -88% from its ATH of $74.59.
With weakening price structure and mounting sell-side pressure, does this unlock represent a “high-risk” liquidity event or a calculated bet in a volatile market?
TRUMP tokenomics under scrutiny
The TRUMP token has a cap of 1 billion tokens, set to be unlocked over the next three years, setting a hard supply ceiling.
Currently, 20% of the total supply, or approximately 200 million tokens, are in circulation, with the remaining tokens set to unlock progressively.
Once the new tokens enter circulation, they will contribute to market dilution, exerting downward pressure on the price, especially if holders choose to sell immediately upon unlocking.
However, despite inflationary effects and supply-side pressure, TRUMP’s fundamentals have shown remarkable resilience, as illustrated by the chart below.
Source: Glassnode
Even though the token has lost initial “hype” post-launch, TRUMP’s STH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) hasn’t entered capitulation territory. Instead, maintained a bullish bias.
This suggests that Short-Term Holders (STHs) are still holding positions, demonstrating optimism and avoiding realizing losses.
In conclusion, TRUMP’s 88% price correction could lead to volatility following the release of 40 million tokens.
However, its strong fundamentals suggest that its tokenomics continue to position it as a compelling bullish bet.
Key levels to watch
In alignment with AMBCrypto’s bullish thesis, TRUMP exhibited a robust 8% intraday rally in the immediate aftermath of the 40 million token unlock.
Hence, reclaiming the $8 psychological level amid a 68% uptick in 24-hour trading volume.
This price response reflects bullish absorption of the unlock event, signaling that market participants may have front-run the supply-side dilution.
However, it remains unclear whether this move constitutes a structural reversal or merely a reflexive bounce within a broader downtrend.
In other words, has TRUMP established a definitive cyclical floor, or is this an interim liquidity-driven rally primed for mean reversion?
The chart below may offer that answer.
Source: Glassnode
On one hand, strong holder conviction continues to defend the $7 support level, preventing a breakdown. On the other, weak capital inflows are capping TRUMP’s breakout potential.
Network growth metrics reflect this stagnation, with new wallet addresses dropping sharply to just 1,476 — a stark contrast to the 700,000 wallet count observed during its bullish expansion phase.
In conclusion, TRUMP’s recent rally appears to be a reflexive bounce, driven by speculative positioning around the token unlock.
Without renewed inflows or a resurgence in network activity, the asset remains vulnerable to extended consolidation.
