- Bitcoin’s 2025 might be mirroring 2018’s post-bear breakout, hinting at a possible bull run
- Despite low retail buzz, rising indicators and price action suggested BTC may be entering a new uptrend
Bitcoin’s [BTC] market behavior in 2025 is starting to feel eerily familiar. As its price action stabilizes and data shifts, investors are pointing to similarities with the post-bear market phase of 2018.
The question at the center of this pattern – Could Bitcoin be on the edge of another historic recovery?
2025’s quiet momentum shift may mirror 2018’s breakout moment
Source: Cryptoquant
The chart highlighted two critical transition points – Late 2018 and early 2025. Both followed extended bear markets, as shown by deep red valleys, where sentiment and price action languished. In 2018, Bitcoin began to climb steadily once it breached this bearish threshold, eventually fueling a new bull cycle. Today, the structure is strikingly similar.
Right now, Bitcoin’s market cap has again crossed out of the red zone, with the lower indicator hinting at resurging bullish momentum. The reappearance of this setup doesn’t always guarantee a rally. However, history suggests these transitions often precede multi-month uptrends.
Why this cycle is different
While the technical echoes of 2018 are undeniable, this cycle unfolds under a vastly different macro lens. Bitcoin is now operating in a post-ETF environment, with growing institutional participation and far more mature infrastructure. And yet, at the core, sentiment-driven phases of fear and greed still shape price discovery.
In fact, the lower on-chain indicator highlighted a formation nearly identical to 2018’s recovery stage. What hasn’t changed is how markets react when these metrics flip. The crowd tends to lag, the chain often leads.
What’s unique is how quietly this transition has been happening. Retail interest has remained muted, perhaps offering smart money a window before broader momentum returns. If the pattern holds, we may be witnessing the first tremors of Bitcoin’s next major rally.
Bitcoin’s price outlook
Bitcoin’s latest close above $87,000 marked a gain of 2.5%, signaling a potential trend shift. The RSI climbed to 57.93, reflecting growing bullish momentum without entering overbought territory – A sign of room for further upside.
Meanwhile, the OBV seemed to be steadily rising, indicating that buying pressure may be backing the price action.
Source: TradingView
With higher lows forming on both price and indicators, Bitcoin might be gaining strength after weeks of consolidation. If the $88k resistance breaks, a move towards $90k could unfold rapidly, echoing early-stage rebounds seen in previous market cycles.
