- BTC whale inflows jumped 26% this week, but long-term outflows still outweighed accumulation.
- Bitcoin’s price divergence and valuation conflict may delay a clean breakout above $98K.
Bitcoin [BTC] is showing early signs of a potential rebound, supported by a TD Sequential buy signal on the hourly chart and renewed technical momentum. At press time, BTC traded at $95,952.36, marking a 0.33% decline over the past 24 hours.
Although the price is consolidating below $96,000, several on-chain and derivatives-based metrics suggest that BTC may be preparing for a decisive move—if key structural signals align.
Whale accumulation shows short-term inflows, but…
Fresh accumulation from whales provided the first spark of optimism. Large Holder Netflow rose 26.41% over the past week, suggesting short-term conviction at current levels.
However, the broader trend remains weighed down by the 30-day and 90-day Netflows, which are down -108.09% and -110.13% respectively.
Therefore, despite the recent recovery, long-term distribution continues to pose a challenge to sustained bullish momentum.
Source: IntoTheBlock
On top of that, Glassnode data showed a significant increase in on-chain usage, with 925,914 active addresses recorded in the last 24 hours.
This marks the highest level of network activity in six months and signals strong blockchain engagement.
Yet, enthusiasm may be running hot. Santiment’s Price DAA Divergence stood at -225.82%, showing price is outpacing organic address growth.
Source: Santiment
Valuation metrics reveal conflicting signals across BTC’s market health
Several valuation models present a mixed outlook.
The Puell Multiple sat at 1.36, indicating miner revenues are within a healthy range.
Meanwhile, the NVT and NVM ratios increased by 50% and 26%, respectively, suggesting that market capitalization is outpacing transaction and user activity.
Conversely, the Stock-to-Flow Ratio has declined by 50%, indicating reduced confidence in long-term scarcity pricing. These conflicting metrics show that while fundamentals aren’t weak, the market remains in a valuation gray zone.
Source: CryptoQuant
Besides, Binance’s Liquidation Heatmap reveals densely packed liquidity clusters near $94,000 and $98,000. These levels represent zones of high leveraged positioning, where price volatility often intensifies.
If BTC breaks above $98K, it could trigger a cascade of short liquidations that fuel upward momentum. However, a drop below $94K could liquidate long positions and drive the price lower.
As a result, traders should watch these levels closely, as they may dictate BTC’s next directional move.
Can BTC break above $98K or stall again?
Bitcoin is flashing signs of recovery with rising network activity and fresh whale inflows.
However, long-term sell pressure, negative price-to-activity divergence, and valuation tension suggest that the path to a breakout above $98K remains uncertain.
For now, momentum exists—but caution is warranted until more alignment across metrics materializes.
