- Bitcoin’s cycle tops have steadily declined from 15× to 2.65× the 2-Year Simple Moving Average.
- Despite lower cycle multiples, BTC is showing signs of structural strength.
Over the past eight years, Bitcoin [BTC] has seen a massive shift in its price behavior as the market matures.
With each cycle, BTC’s peak has formed at a lower multiple of its 2-year simple moving average (2Y SMA), reflecting shrinking volatility and a more stable market structure.
From wild rallies to tempered surges
Looking at previous cycles, Bitcoin’s early bull runs were explosive, with tops occurring at 15x the 2Y SMA according to the Alphractal.
These explosive upswings signaled wild speculative growth, largely driven by a thin market and early adopters.
Source: Alphractal
However, from 2017, the market started changing as Bitcoin reached the global market with widespread consciousness. The crypto’s growth, although staggering, was highly subdued.
During this time, the top was reached around 10x the 2Y SMA, indicating high volatility amid growing maturity.
In 2021, institutional money flooded in. Yet, the cycle’s peak dropped again, first hitting 5×, then reversing around 2.65× the 2Y SMA.
This marked a structural shift: Bitcoin was no longer just a trade—it was becoming a macro asset.
2.65× remains the mark—Can BTC moonshot to $159K?
In the most recent cycle, Bitcoin has failed to surpass the 2.65× multiple again, showing a narrowing of gains and indicating a more mature asset.
Currently, the 2Y SMA ×2.65 level reflects lower volatility, deeper liquidity, and a mature user base. That level now sits around $159,000. If BTC makes a major upswing, $159k will act as the next key resistance.
As observed above, although Bitcoin is currently experiencing diminishing cycle tops, there’s still more room for growth.
Looking at Bitcoin’s MVRV, it’s currently revolving around 2.4, signaling that the market is still below euphoria territory.
Historically, Bitcoin tops have emerged around 3.5 to 4.0. Thus, at current levels, there’s still more room for growth before the cycle tops.
Source: Bitbo
Adding to that, NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) remains in the belief/denial zone—not yet in greed or euphoria.
With significant maturity in market behavior, BTC holders are currently unlikely to pursue extreme profit taking as they expect higher prices for the current cycle.
Source: Bitbo
Bottom line
Therefore, although future cycles can no longer experience a 15x surge, there’s still more room for growth, where Bitcoin is more stable, less volatile, and reliable as an investment.
In the prevailing market, BTC still has more room for growth. If the momentum of the cycle holds and BTC surpasses $110k, we could see a surge to $159k levels.
In the short term, however, this is unlikely, but since the market is yet to reach a top, this level could be where markets cool down for the current cycle.
