- Transaction activity on AVAX has notably declined as retail investors exit the market, but whales are stepping in.
- Buying activity remains high, but the price may not continue to rise.
Avalanche [AVAX] dipped 4.12% over the past 24 hours. This trend has persisted over the past month, with the highest cumulative gain recorded at 5.32%.
Market analysis reveals several possibilities for the asset’s trajectory, especially as retail trader engagement drops and whales become more active.
What’s behind AVAX’s recent trend?
According to a report by Nansen, AVAX finds itself in a paradoxical market position caused by the contrasting actions of whales and retail traders.
The analysis cites a recent 74% drop in Active Addresses—down to 414,234—and a 34% decline in transactions to 2,990,667, confirming waning retail interest.
Source: Nansen
Interestingly, transaction fees surged, with analysis suggesting that whales—likely institutions—are behind the spike.
The fees generated on the blockchain over the last seven days have jumped 116%, reaching $243,280, a significant portion of which is attributed to these institutions.
Whale activity generally supports a market rally, as it signals growing confidence. AMBCrypto tracked the market impact of this trend.
What does whale presence mean?
That shift was further confirmed in spot markets.
In just 24 hours, whale wallets snapped up $10.62 million worth of AVAX, just shy of the year’s highest single-day accumulation of $10.63 million on the 6th of April.
Source: CoinGlass
This week alone, traders have bought $22.96 million worth of AVAX, indicating that buyers on centralized exchanges view the current price as a significant discount.
Source: Artemis
Across decentralized exchanges (DEXes), AVAX trading activity is also rising. Currently, DEX volume has reached $161 million.
If this upward trajectory continues, the asset could reclaim its market high above $200 million, potentially strengthening its price.
How has AVAX reacted?
AVAX’s presence on the chart remains strong, but it may face significant resistance at $26.47.
If this resistance holds, AVAX could return to the ascending triangle pattern, marked by the purple line, and continue trading within this range.
However, a successful breakout above this level could send the asset from $26.47 to $41.90—a 58% gain.
Source: TradingView
This outlook hinges on two factors: if whale buying continues and spot markets keep absorbing the asset, AVAX could reach the upper target.
But if retail investors continue to lose interest, it may affect price movement and increase the likelihood of a return to the earlier trading pattern.
