- The Bitcoin market feels pinned between strength and hesitation.
- Miners just recorded their best month post-halving, pulling in $1.52 billion in May revenue.
The Bitcoin [BTC] market feels like it’s stuck in limbo.
Prices are strong, but the momentum just isn’t convincing. It almost feels like one move and BTC could erase all its May gains, dropping back below six figures.
With so much at stake, caution seems like the smartest play. But unlike the broader Bitcoin market, there’s one sector sitting on fat margins – miners. Their production costs are way lower than Bitcoin’s current price, giving them outsized profits.
Historically, miners have been quick to lock in gains when the pressure’s on. So while the market waits, should we be watching the miners more closely?
Mining economics post-halving
After the April 2024 halving, miners saw their rewards get cut from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC overnight, and that hit hard.
The thing is, while rewards drop in half every four years, the cost of mining a block doesn’t get cheaper. You’re burning the same power, paying the same bills, but now earning half as much per block.
Naturally, this sent the Average Mining Costs soaring.
By late April, it rocketed to around $90,000 per BTC, while the price stubbornly sat near $60k. That mismatch created a loop of sideways action, with the Bitcoin market trapped in a tight range.
Source: MacroMicro
Why? Because what comes post-halving is a classic miner playbook: Reserves deplete, Bitcoin market takes a dip, and miner revenue starts to bleed.
In other words, the mounting pressure forces miners to bail before their profit margins (BTC’s spot price – production cost) get crushed even harder, accelerating a full-blown miner capitulation phase.
Bitcoin market stuck in limbo, miners racing ahead
A year out from the fourth halving, the average cost to mine a single Bitcoin still sits at around $91,105, while the Bitcoin market has been grinding sideways with BTC stuck between $103k and $105k.
Sure, Bitcoin posted a solid 11.12% ROI in May and even tagged a new all-time high. In turn, pushing the Bitcoin market into a fresh wave of profit-taking.
But if we’re keeping score, miners may have walked away with the bigger slice of the pie.
May 2025 turned out to be their best month since the April 2024 halving.
According to The Block, miners pulled in a massive $1.52 billion in revenue – $20 million of that just from on-chain fees.
Source: TheBlock
That said, early warning signs are emerging. The Miner’s Position Index (MPI) has flipped back above zero, hinting that some miners may already be moving coins to exchanges.
Historically, large inflows tend to front-run capitulation events, especially when spot prices flirt with the average cost of production.
This puts Bitcoin in a pressure zone. If BTC loses its current range, it might just make sense for some miners to cash out while margins are still juicy.
Could that be the next spark for volatility in the Bitcoin market? It’s definitely one of the key triggers to keep an eye on.
