- 1B XRP unlocked as price retested a key support near $2.14 amid rising caution.
- NVT ratio plunged while exchange reserves drop, signaling mixed investor sentiment.
Since early June, over 1 billion Ripple [XRP] worth more than $2.2 billion has been unlocked from escrow—500 million from Ripple and another 500 million to unknown wallets.
These massive unlocks have stirred speculation, especially as the market struggles to interpret their potential intent—whether for strategic deployment or liquidity release.
This timing aligns with XRP’s declining momentum and hesitation to reclaim its recent highs.
Therefore, the growing circulating supply now tests market resilience, creating a critical juncture between possible accumulation or pressure-driven capitulation.
Can XRP maintain strength?
XRP traded at $2.18 after dropping 2.15% in the past 24 hours, reflecting investor caution following the unlock.
On the daily chart, price action has faltered below $2.60, failing to push higher despite prior breakouts. Now, XRP hovers near $2.14, a support level that previously fueled bullish recovery in April.
While structure remains intact above this zone, repeated retests without volume confirmation often lead to breakdowns.
Therefore, maintaining this level becomes critical to avoid cascading losses that could threaten the broader bullish trend.
Source: TradingView
Spot data from the 5th of June revealed inflows totaling $49.06 million versus outflows at $54.68 million.
While these numbers appear relatively close, the consistent dominance of outflows highlights a subtle yet persistent bearish pressure.
Historically, similar flow setups have preceded short-term pullbacks. Although the unlocked supply has yet to flood centralized exchanges, the negative flow bias implies investor hesitation.
What does the falling NVT ratio say?
The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio for XRP was 161.67 at press time, down 25.45% in recent sessions.
This sharp decline signals that network usage—measured by transaction volume—is increasing relative to market cap.
While this could suggest growing utility, it also implies that investors might be questioning XRP’s valuation premium.
A falling NVT ratio in this context reflects either an undervaluation opportunity or diminishing speculative interest.
Source: CryptoQuant
Exchange-held XRP reserves now stand at $6.27 billion after dropping 1.82%, hinting at declining sell-side liquidity.
Typically, falling reserves suggest accumulation or long-term storage, potentially supporting bullish sentiment.
However, in combination with negative spot flows, it could also reflect OTC transfers or hesitation to sell in the open market.
Therefore, interpretation requires caution. If buyers step in at support, the reduced exchange liquidity could amplify any upward move.
The pressure of fresh supply remains
Despite a sharp drop in NVT ratio and a reduction in exchange reserves, XRP’s recent price reaction and slightly negative spot flows point to market indecision.
The 1 billion token unlock has not yet sparked major panic, but traders remain cautious as price hovers around a crucial $2.14 support zone.
If bulls defend this level and demand strengthens, XRP could stabilize and rally from current levels.
However, failure to hold may trigger further downside as unlocked supply slowly filters into circulation. The next move hinges on volume and sentiment alignment.
