- Bitcoin’s 7% dip signals recalibration amid rising macro pressure.
- Gold remains just 2% shy of its all-time high as safe-haven flows intensify.
Macro FUD has re-entered the chat, though truthfully, it never really left. In turn, Bitcoin [BTC] has once again found itself in the crosshairs.
After three days of heavy deleveraging, the “Is $100k at risk?” chatter is back in full swing.
Yet, BTC didn’t stay down for long. A sharp 3% bounce has it testing the $105k mark again, and this move doesn’t look like a fluke.
According to AMBCrypto, traders seem to be learning from past shakeouts, turning previous fear into a playbook. If that’s the case, could it mean the crowd is finally getting smarter after all?
BTC stands tall as FUD rises
Make no mistake, this isn’t your typical bout of tariff-induced market FUD. What’s unfolding is a full-scale conflict between two Middle Eastern nations, both key OPEC players.
Over the past two months, oil prices have rallied nearly 40%, with Iran-linked crude benchmarks spiking close to 5% in just the last 24 hours. All of this is happening with the next FOMC decision less than a week away.
The risk assets responded swiftly.
The Dow Jones dropped nearly 900 points, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slid close to 3% as capital rotated defensively into bonds, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell roughly 3%, reflecting de-risking across global markets.
Gold [XAU] responded in kind, rallying nearly 4% to $3,432 amid a surge in safe-haven demand. Technically, the metal is now within striking distance, just 2% away from reclaiming its all-time high.
Source: Trading Economics
Now, sure, some will point to Bitcoin’s 7% dip and say it’s proof the resilience narrative is cracking. Layer that with the buildup in “anticipation” around a potential rate hike pause, it’s a reasonable concern.
However, market positioning tells a more nuanced story. It suggests this is less about capitulation and more about recalibration.
Traders are getting smarter
Notably, institutional flows have quietly flipped bullish again, with nearly $1.3 billion flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs in under a week.
That influx has acted as a key shock absorber, supporting BTC’s swift 3% recovery off the lows.
But the biggest wildcard? Derivatives traders. Unlike past local tops where overheated Open Interest (OI) signaled crowding and preceded sharp liquidations, this time Futures markets stayed remarkably contained.
Case in point: On the 23rd of May, BTC tagged a new all-time high at $111k, while OI peaked at $80.31 billion. Consequently, such frothiness triggered aggressive wipeout, pulling BTC back to $100,424.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Sure, it’s still premature to declare a confirmed rebound, but the signs are worth noting.
Despite bullish momentum building pre-FUD, Bitcoin’s OI didn’t peak, even as the market flirted with another ATH. That restraint hints at growing maturity in positioning.
In contrast to Ethereum [ETH], BTC participants took a more cautious approach this time.
By keeping leverage in check, they significantly reduced the risk of a cascading liquidation event, potentially saving millions from being wiped out.
Add in the strong absorption from institutional flows, and another breakdown below $100k now seems increasingly less probable.
