- Ancient Bitcoin supply now grows faster than new issuance, boosting long-term scarcity.
- 88.88% of BTC holders are in profit, reflecting strong bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin [BTC], trading at $104,970.77 at press time following a modest 0.22% gain over the past 24 hours as per CoinMarketCap, finds itself at a critical juncture with the $102K level acting as a key support.
Despite market uncertainty, though, BTC holders have largely held their ground, with both whale and retail inflows to exchanges noticeably slowing, a potential sign of increasing preference for holding over selling.
However, while this behavior may signal long-term bullish sentiment, short-term volatility remains a possibility.
How 2024 halving change Bitcoin’s ecosystem?
Against this backdrop, a recent report by Fidelity Digital Assets highlights a subtle yet significant shift in Bitcoin’s ecosystem since the 2024 halving.
For the first time, the number of Bitcoins classified as “ancient supply,” which includes coins unmoved for at least 10 years, is growing faster than new issuance.
As of the 8th of June 2025, an average of 566 BTC are entering this long-term category daily, outpacing the current issuance rate of 450 BTC.
As per reports, the ancient supply now accounts for over 17% of the total issued Bitcoin, marking a fundamental shift in supply dynamics.
While scarcity alone doesn’t guarantee price appreciation, the rising influence of long-term holders may bring Bitcoin’s limited supply into sharper focus over time.
What does Bitcoin need to do?
Moreover, for Bitcoin to reach the ambitious milestone of $1 million per coin, its market capitalization would need to surge to $21 trillion, ten times its press time valuation of $2.10 trillion.
This goal may not be out of reach, given Bitcoin’s fixed supply and increasing ancient supply.
Some projections for ancient supply indicate that it could reach 30% of the total supply (approximately 6.3 million BTC) by 2026, especially with ongoing institutional accumulation.
At the same time, recent events such as the Israel-Iran war have introduced a lot of volatility into the crypto market, which is already known for being relatively more volatile.
Providing further reason, the report also added,
“Since the 2024 U.S. election, bitcoin’s ancient supply has declined day-to-day 10% of the time—nearly four times the historical average across the full data set dating back to 2019.”
Likewise, coins held for five or more years have seen day-to-day declines 39% of the time post-election, three times the norm, contributing to the stagnant price movement observed in early 2025.
What’s next?
This shows that the ancient supply projections are currently painting an optimistic picture for the future of BTC.
However, recent post-election volatility has shown that even long-term holders can be prompted to move their assets.
Still, Bitcoin’s fundamentals appeared strong. As per IntoTheBlock data, a significant portion of holders, i.e., 88.88%, were in profit, hinting at continued bullish sentiment at the time of writing, while only 3.77% were in loss.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Hence, with fewer coins entering circulation and more being held indefinitely or lost, Bitcoin’s scarcity is poised to increase.
This rare, disinflationary characteristic, unmatched by any other asset or commodity, could become even more influential as demand rises alongside the growth of ancient supply, reinforcing Bitcoin’s long-term investment appeal despite short-term uncertainty.
