- Bitcoin fell from $105K to $102K, with an analyst eyeing $94K as the next major support zone.
- BTC’s Open Interest data showed it entered a leveraged sell-off zone, increasing downside risk.
Bitcoin [BTC] slipped from $105K to $102K after briefly touching the $100K mark, rattled by heightened geopolitical pressure.
The U.S.–Israel airstrikes on Iran triggered a fresh round of volatility, forcing risk assets—especially crypto—to unwind aggressively.
Despite a mild rebound to $102K, BTC’s short-term outlook remains under threat, with analysts now eyeing a potential drop to $94K.
Bitcoin is losing momentum
According to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin has lost its bullish rhythm.
On the daily chart, BTC was trading below the FVRP intense swap zone at $95K, suggesting a loss of consensus value.
Source: TradingView
When BTC is below this level, it means that prices are trading below a zone of heavy interest where most investors acquired it. Thus, if the prices continue to hold below this level, selling pressure is expected to increase.
Naturally, such a break coinciding with heavy spot resistance—like the SMA50 near $105K—makes upward continuation unlikely in the near term.
Two rejections, one outcome
Source: TradingView
BTC recently failed to close above $105K for the second time, confirming it as short-term resistance. More critically, it closed below the SMA50 again, opening up the path for further losses.
The loss of momentum is further evidenced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
RSI dropped to 41.59, at press time, well below the neutral 50 level. RSI is also trending under its SMA14, reflecting increased seller control.
And if their dominance continues to rise, so will the downside momentum strengthen.
Based on this analogy, the downtrend will continue, with BTC dropping to $94K. This is because the VAL level in FRVP points to approximately $93- 94K.
We’re deep in leveraged territory
On top of that, Open Interest and Price Change data from Checkonchain placed BTC in a clear leveraged sell-off zone.
Source: Checkonchain
Often, this signals weakening momentum and continued downside risk unless shorts get squeezed or spot buyers step in. This is what mostly happened on daily charts as prices recovered from the $100K dip.
Despite the recovery to $102k, the downward momentum is still strong as investors have taken a step back in the market.
Bitcoin NVT Ratio flashes red
Source: CryptoQuant
The on-chain story further supports a bearish case.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s NVT Ratio surged to 60.9, suggesting the price is increasing without equivalent transactional volume.
In other words, the recent bounce lacks organic support. When NVT Ratios spike like this, it often indicates unsustainable price action—a warning of incoming retracement.
Such a move will see BTC drop to $97,917 before attempting another leg up. However, if short positions recorded over the past day continue to be squeezed, BTC can recover and reclaim $104K.
