- The volatility on the 21st of June pushed the price of Bitcoin below $102.5k.
- The metrics showed that a deeper retracement was likely, especially if the $100k support was lost.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] long dominance surged 10% in a week, but the news last night of the U.S. bombing Iran’s nuclear sites saw market sentiment plummet.
The geopolitical jolt triggered panic across crypto markets, and BTC dropped to $100,809 at press time.
Naturally, the pullback activated a cluster of liquidation levels below $ 103K, triggering a long liquidation cascade, causing short-term holders to capitulate.
The recent news saw $127.3 million in long liquidations over the past 24 hours, and could worsen in the coming days.
Here’s what Bitcoin traders and investors need to know.
Clues that Bitcoin might be headed for a deeper pullback
According to Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, BTC’s price fell below the +0.5σ band on the 21st of June. The price was sitting at $102,159, while the +0.5σ stood at $102,770.
A move below this band historically hints at a broader correction.
The extreme deviation pricing bands allow us to gauge when the market is in extreme unrealized profit or unrealized loss. It is derived from the MVRV ratio and offers a statistically significant approach.
In fact, the last such breakdown in February 2025 led to a six-week-long bleed toward the mean band, which sat at $83,171.
Based on that trajectory, BTC may be on track for a return to $82K–$83K, unless sentiment turns swiftly.
Buying power builds, but will bulls show up?
The price drop saw the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) plummet, but it was nowhere near the levels from March and April.
The falling metric meant that the stablecoin market cap was rising relative to BTC’s market cap, which implied increased buying power in the market.
Rising buying power doesn’t guarantee an immediate uptrend. Despite increasing sidelined capital, the downside risk still looms.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s Price Drawdown from its All-Time High stood at -8.75% on the 21st of June.
Historically, drawdowns in past cycles have ranged from 20% to over 50% before a recovery.
In early April, BTC saw a 24% correction, reminding investors that even strong rallies often come with painful pullbacks.
A clean breakout above ATH may not come easily—volatility could continue, with a possible dip below $100K before the next major move.
