- The Wyckoff pattern predicts four possible Bitcoin moves: one bullish path and three bearish trajectories.
- Market sentiment tilted toward the bullish side, as selling pressure has notably declined.
Bitcoin [BTC], after establishing dominance above the $100,000 mark, briefly traded below it for the first time since the 8th of May. However, it has reclaimed this level again.
Analysis indicates the asset still follows a two-way path, with both a fall and a rally remaining possible despite the price recovery.
A technical pattern known as the Wyckoff model was used to analyze Bitcoin’s potential movement, revealing four possible outcomes.
Only one bullish path—Altcoin rally to follow?
The first case is the bullish scenario—also the only bullish one—called the “Delay Cycle” and the “Altcoin Rally opportunity.”
In this phase, Bitcoin would enter an accumulation and redistribution stage, essentially consolidating within a defined support and resistance range.
Source: TradingView
During this period, Bitcoin is typically purchased in bulk at favorable prices, providing the momentum for a rally that could reach between $140,000 and $146,000 in October.
This Bitcoin consolidation phase would likely trigger an Altcoin season, with many of these assets trending higher, potentially starting in July.
Three bearish outcomes could trap Bitcoin traders
The analysis also outlines three bearish tendencies for Bitcoin, each with similar characteristics.
In these phases, investors or traders with open positions would face significant pressure, as price movement will primarily target liquidity zones.
Source: TradingView
The first bearish scenario shares similarities with the bullish case, involving similar consolidation. However, instead of breaking out above the resistance level, Bitcoin would plunge below, breaching the support of the consolidation range.
The other two bearish scenarios involve price trading into the resistance level only once.
Source: TradingView
In one of these scenarios, the asset reacts to resistance above and then moves sideways in a tight range before ultimately breaking down.
In the final case, Bitcoin maintains a bearish stance and experiences a sharp drop, with minimal consolidation along the way.
Analyst Jao Wedson notes that one scenario is critical in determining Bitcoin’s neutrality.
“The most interesting of the four scenarios is the first one: if confirmed, it reinforces that BTC continues to follow its natural cycles, regardless of market narratives.”
Investors accumulate despite uncertainty
AMBCrypto examined additional market indicators to assess Bitcoin’s potential direction.
In the wake of its recent price drop, investors have started accumulating BTC in large volumes. At press time, Exchange Netflow data, which tracks inflows and outflows on centralized platforms, reflected a net buying trend.
Source: CryptoQuant
At the time of writing, around 1,400 BTC, worth approximately $141 million, has been purchased and moved into private wallets.
This coincides with a significant drop in Bitcoin Exchange Reserves, suggesting that less BTC is available on exchanges.
Lower Exchange Reserves could lead to a supply squeeze, which may drive the asset’s price higher over the long term.
Source: CryptoQuant
Bullish sentiment is also starting to reflect in the derivatives market. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on CoinGlass has risen and at press time sits at 0.98.
A ratio above 1 would indicate that buy volume is exceeding sell volume in derivatives, reinforcing the growing bullish momentum.
