- XRP has broken below $2 twice in Q2, on the back of fading momentum and bulls failing to reclaim key levels
- ETF-driven upside is compelling, but can it help demand?
Q2 has been brutal for XRP’s price, undercutting even Q1’s sharp retrace.
After closing Q1 at $2.13, well off its $3.40 January peak, XRP has now lost the $2 handle twice in Q2, signaling weakness and indecision. Momentum is fading, quarterly returns are flat, and bulls are struggling to reclaim key levels.
And yet, with Bloomberg assigning a 95% chance to XRP ETF approval, the narrative may be far from over. Can Ripple really stand on “ETF hype” alone?
ETF flows could trigger massive revaluation
There’s no doubt, ETFs have proven to be institutional magnets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum already proving the model.
So, when Bloomberg places a 95% probability on XRP ETF approval, it can’t simply be dismissed as another “sell-the-news” setup.
In fact, analysts are already modeling scenarios.
One model projects that if XRP ETFs capture just 35% of Bitcoin ETF flows, that would amount to $16.331 billion in net inflows into Ripple’s ecosystem – A level of demand that could trigger a major revaluation.
With XRP trading at around $2 and a market cap of $125.87 billion spread across 58.93 billion tokens, even a conservative model would point to a massive $1.759 trillion upside.
That would put XRP’s projected price at $29.89, marking one of the most explosive upside cases currently on the table. However, will the demand side of the ETF equation actually show up?
XRP’s technical breakdown deepens
Despite clear signs of technical strain, XRP is yet to witness full-scale capitulation. As AMBCrypto noted, underwater holders are not realizing losses – A classic precondition for broader distribution phases.
On-chain, the 10k–100k wallet cohort now controls 11.35% of supply, second only to the <100k cohort, which holds a dominant 84%.
Combined, these groups account for 95% of XRP’s circulating supply – An unusually tight ownership concentration.
Source: Glassnode
From a market structure standpoint, if the ETF gets the green light, this kind of concentrated ownership could quickly flip into a major revaluation trigger.
So, while a $30 XRP might seem like a stretch, it’s not off the table. In fact, under the right conditions, it could serve as the inflection point that redefines Ripple’s market trajectory.
