- Whale capitulation and majority losses among holders continue to suppress recovery potential.
- Taker Sell Dominance and falling activity outweigh bullish signs from RSI and new wallets.
A whale deposited 10.42 million Mantra [OM] worth $2.17 million into Binance after acquiring the tokens for $24.29 million from FalconX between December 2024 and April 2025.
This move resulted in an $8.34 million realized loss, suggesting a potential capitulation event.
The transaction has sparked debate on whether it reflects panic selling or strategic repositioning. However, given the size of the dump, this has intensified short-term bearish sentiment.
Market participants may need to exercise caution, as large-scale liquidations often precede periods of volatility and uncertainty.
Can OM rebound when 95% of holders are underwater?
According to on-chain data, 95.46% of OM addresses were out of the money, with only 4.47% holding profitable positions, at press time.
This heavily skewed ratio paints a picture of widespread unrealized losses. Therefore, any upward move may face significant resistance as trapped holders look to break even.
Historically, such conditions lead to distribution phases where minor rallies are sold into. Unless sentiment reverses strongly or fresh catalysts emerge, OM’s recovery potential could remain muted for now.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Will bulls regain control as RSI stays deep in oversold territory?
At the time of writing, OM’s Relative Strength Index stood at 20.48, deep in the oversold zone, while the MACD showed a weak bullish crossover attempt that lacks strong follow-through.
These indicators signal prolonged bearish momentum. Moreover, the RSI struggled to reclaim the 30 level, suggesting continued market weakness.
Although oversold readings often hint at possible bounces, the lack of buying conviction on the MACD diminishes confidence. For now, momentum indicators favor caution over optimism.
Source: TradingView
Are takers still selling into weakness?
The 90-day Futures Taker CVD showed sustained sell-side dominance, reflecting aggressive market sell orders outpacing buys.
This trend reinforces bearish sentiment and aligns with the recent whale outflow. Therefore, even speculative buyers remain hesitant, possibly awaiting stronger price confirmation.
Without a shift in taker behavior, continued downside appears likely. Additionally, sell dominance in derivatives markets can suppress spot price recovery due to increased short exposure.
Source: CryptoQuant
Why are new users rising while activity drops?
Despite a 15.79% increase in new wallet addresses over the past week, daily active addresses fell by 4.89%.
This divergence points to speculative interest rather than genuine engagement. While user acquisition metrics appear healthy, actual on-chain interaction remains low.
Therefore, market growth may be superficial at this stage.
Without increased activity from newly onboarded users, OM risks stagnating as short-term interest fades. Sustained adoption requires more than just fresh wallets—it demands ongoing utility and interaction.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Will OM bounce back or deepen its slide?
While the deeply oversold RSI and rising new wallet growth offer glimmers of hope, bearish dominance across taker volume, heavy unrealized losses among holders, and recent whale capitulation point to sustained downside risk.
OM may require a strong narrative shift or market-wide rebound to regain traction.
Until then, recovery appears limited, and traders may continue facing significant resistance at every bounce attempt in the near term.
