Key Takeaways
BTC could break out above $110K and eye $150K before the end of the year. August could spark volatility, but cycle peak indicators suggested the market is far from being overheated.
Bitcoin [BTC] still has more fuel to run on, and a breakout to a new record high could be likely, according to analyst Willy Woo.
He noted that an increasingly favorable liquidity set-up and low macro risk could fuel BTC growth, similar to the uptrend seen in 2017, 2021, and early 2024.
“It models BTC’s liquidity, we’re late cycle. Dips in risk are areas of new found liquidity, often a prelude to break new highs. It’s dipping right now!”
Source: Willy Woo/X
The above indicator tracks macro risk linked to on-chain liquidity. The lower the readings, the more likely the growth is, as seen in 2017 and 2021.
Currently, the reading has been elevated while BTC has been stuck in $100K-$110K range. But a sustained decline in risk could be positive for the asset.
BTC is far from topping out
The above bullish outlook was also supported by low readings on key cycle top metrics.
According to a composite tracker of the top 30 cycle peak signals, including Pi Cycle and MVRV Z-Score, none had been flagged as of this writing.
This meant BTC still had a firm ‘hold’ rating and no need to sell, implying potential future growth.
Source: CoinGlass
On the demand side, long-term holders (LTH, users who’ve held on to BTC for more than 155 days) still had strong convictions in the asset.
Between April and July, this investor cohort increased its BTC holdings by over 1 million BTC. Now they hold 15.4 million BTC from 14.25 million BTC in April.
Besides, the 30-day net LTH holding change has remained positive despite a slight decline. This conviction and accumulation coincided with a 46% recovery for BTC from April lows.
Source: CryptoQuant
Earlier in the year, LTH net change flipped negative and coincided with the local peak and subsequent 30% pullback from $109K to $75K.
However, the current positive LTH bid suggested a bullish conviction, and positive for the BTC price outlook.
In fact, Charles Edwards, founder of crypto VC Capriole Investments, speculated that BTC could hit $150K by September, citing growing global liquidity.
A similar price target, but using technical analysis, was shared by analyst Crypto Jelle.
“High-timeframe bullish pennant breakout. Target: $150,000. Keep it simple.”
Source: Crypto Jelle/X
But crypto trading desk QCP Capital cautioned that despite the summer lull, new tariffs and the debt ceiling deadline in August could spark volatility.
“But beware the quiet. Volatility may be on summer break, but Q3 and Q4 could still deliver fireworks.”
