Key Takeaways
Whale inflows surged 195% in seven days, supporting BTC’s push toward $127K. Exchange outflows and declining miner pressure limit immediate downside risk.
Bitcoin [BTC] is rapidly approaching the upper boundary of the MVRV Pricing Bands, with the +2.0σ zone marked at $127,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded around $122,400, brushing close to the +1.5σ band.
Historically, prices near the +2.0σ level have aligned with market tops, yet BTC’s strong momentum shows no signs of exhaustion. As realized price hovers near $49K, the growing deviation signals elevated investor optimism.
Traders may need to tread carefully, as overheated valuation zones often precede corrections, even in bull markets.
Source: X/Ali
Bitcoin whales load up—fuel for $127K?
Whale accumulation has intensified dramatically, with large holder netflows surging over 195% in seven days and more than 547% in 90 days.
These sharp inflows, as shown by IntoTheBlock, suggest strategic accumulation during market dips and consolidations.
Notably, these spikes align with phases of sideways price movement, indicating high conviction buying. This behavior often acts as a precursor to bullish breakouts.
Therefore, the continued inflow from large holders could provide the necessary support to push Bitcoin toward the $127K resistance zone in the near term.
Bitcoin exchange netflows have turned significantly negative, with over 2.82K BTC exiting centralized platforms, reflecting an 18.78% decline.
This outflow pattern suggests that investors prefer holding to trading or selling, reinforcing a long-term bullish outlook.
Typically, such behavior points to decreasing sell-side liquidity, which can further fuel upside pressure.
Moreover, declining netflows also reflect growing confidence in off-exchange custody amid macro uncertainty. Persistent negative netflows can limit downside volatility and bolster upward momentum.
Miner selling dries up
The Puell Multiple was at 1.27 at press time, showing an 11.39% drop, which places it well below historical danger zones for miner-driven corrections.
This metric reflects the ratio of daily coin issuance value relative to its yearly average, and lower values imply less incentive for miners to offload holdings. Reduced selling pressure from this cohort supports price stability.
Therefore, the decline in Puell Multiple may further reinforce the bullish structure forming above $100K by removing a key source of overhead resistance.
The NVT Golden Cross has climbed over 31% to reach 0.94, reflecting an undervalued state for Bitcoin’s network compared to transaction volume.
Historically, values under 2.2 indicate the asset is not in a speculative bubble. This surge suggests that the recent price rise is supported by genuine utility and capital movement.
As NVT diverges positively, it can indicate an early stage of organic growth rather than frothy speculation. Hence, this uptick strengthens the bullish argument, especially if sustained over the coming weeks.
Can Bitcoin break through $127K without overheating?
Bitcoin’s current position near the +1.5σ MVRV band, combined with strong whale accumulation, reduced miner pressure, and sustained outflows from exchanges, signals a structurally bullish setup.
The rise in NVT Golden Cross suggests network fundamentals are keeping pace with price. However, its proximity to overvaluation bands calls for measured optimism.
If accumulation continues and no major sell-offs emerge, Bitcoin could breach the $127K mark in this cycle before facing strong resistance.
