Key Takeaways
Bitcoin is flashing signs of entering an extended bull phase, with rising on-chain confidence and a narrowing spot-derivatives gap hinting at growing market conviction.
Bitcoin [BTC] may be preparing for its next explosive rally.
Key on-chain and derivatives metrics are flashing early signals of strength.
Confidence among holders is rising, while the price gap between Spot and perpetual Futures continues to narrow—conditions that have historically preceded Bitcoin’s sharpest bull runs.
With momentum building, analysts say the breakout could be closer than it appears.
Profit-taking grows, but we’re not at euphoria yet
BTC’s on-chain confidence is rising sharply again, hinting at a possible return to late-stage bull market conditions.
Source: Alphractal
While current levels (at nearly 1.0) resemble early 2024 and early 2025 — when bullish momentum was building — they still remain well below the euphoric highs of 2017 and 2021.
That leaves room for further upside before sentiment overheats.
Derivatives show caution, but that may soon change
Naturally, the derivatives market is showing early signs of catching up.
Source: CryptoQuant
According to CryptoQuant, the Perpetual-Spot Price Gap on Binance remained in negative territory; a red sign that spot buyers are still leading the charge.
But that gap has tightened dramatically in the recent weeks, following multi-month lows.
Source: CryptoQuant
Historically, when this gap turns positive—like in late 2020 or early 2021—Bitcoin has entered parabolic climbs. If Futures traders flip bullish, this narrowing gap could become the ignition point for BTC’s next leg up.
Price action points to strength, not exhaustion
BTC traded at $121,449 at press time, posting steady green candles over the past week. The daily RSI was at 77.86, clearly in overbought territory, typically a warning sign of potential short-term corrections.
Source: TradingView
However, the MACD continues to widen, and histogram bars remain green. This suggests bullish momentum is still intact. Volume has also increased alongside price, reinforcing the move’s legitimacy.
Having said that, a brief pullback is always possible at overbought levels. But unless momentum stalls, bulls seem firmly in control, pushing toward higher levels before any real correction emerges.
