Key Takeaways
Solana cleanly broke above $180, rallying 5% on the day and outshining Ethereum. With signs pointing to a fresh wave of capital rotation, is a run to $200 next?
A subtle but notable divergence is starting to form between Solana [SOL] and Ethereum [ETH].
ETH has dominated the higher timeframes, posting nearly 2x gains on both weekly and monthly candles.
However, SOL just posted a sharp 5.25% daily move, breaking through the $185 supply wall and clearing its third key resistance this month.
More interestingly, the SOL/ETH ratio, which had been in a two-week downtrend, dragging the RSI deep into oversold territory, finally snapped back with a 2.7% intra-day bounce.
Source: TradingView (SOL/ETH)
Historically, this level has acted as a solid bounce zone before. Back in the August-November 2024 cycle, a similar move off this support saw SOL outperform ETH by 2.5x, ripping nearly 98% from its $129 base.
Now, with ETH approaching the $4k mark, signs of buyer fatigue are starting to surface. It’s not necessarily a breakdown setup, but a cooldown here could open the door for more rotation.
If that plays out, could Solana be gearing up for a $200 breakout on the back of a relative strength reversal?
Greed takes hold as Solana reclaims key supply zone
Solana just cleared a major on-chain hurdle.
The URPD shows a dense realized volume cluster between $165-$185. Notably, this zone has acted as resistance since mid-Q1, when SOL broke below it, trapping many holders underwater.
However, with price now reclaiming the range, most positions are back in profit. In a bull market, that kind of flip adds serious momentum to the breakout as greed starts to kick in.
Source: Glassnode
Add to that an overextended ETH/BTC ratio, growing signs of ETH overvaluation, a reversal in the SOL/ETH pair, and SOL breaking through multi-week resistance levels, and the setup favors relative outperformance.
If this rotation holds, we could be looking at the early stages of a trend reversal, with $200 for Solana starting to look more like a baseline than a stretch target.
