Key Takeaways
All wallet cohorts are accumulating, while the stock-to-flow ratio signals tightening Bitcoin supply. Exchange inflows and high-leverage clusters near $120K point to looming volatility.
Bitcoin [BTC] wallet cohorts have re-entered strong accumulation territory, with >10K BTC whales participating at levels not seen since December 2024.
This alignment spans across all wallet sizes, reflecting deep investor conviction in the ongoing rally.
Notably, Bitcoin is trading just under $120K, following a steady climb since early June. The synchronization among small and large holders suggests broad confidence in BTC’s trajectory.
Therefore, this unified accumulation phase might serve as the foundational force behind the next explosive price move if sentiment and momentum persist.
Can surging scarcity drive Bitcoin higher?
Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio has jumped 37.5% to 795.8K, pointing to heightened scarcity.
This metric evaluates the relationship between circulating supply and newly mined coins, with rising values reflecting tighter issuance.
Historically, elevated S2F readings have preceded bullish phases due to increased perceived value. This aligns with accumulation signals, strengthening the narrative of long-term holding over short-term speculation.
As a result, this scarcity surge could further catalyze bullish momentum—especially if demand sustains while supply remains constrained.
Caution arises among traders
At press time, Bitcoin saw a net inflow of $9.51 million into spot exchanges, flipping a trend previously dominated by outflows.
This reversal implies rising short-term sell pressure as holders move coins onto trading platforms.
Although not yet a dominant trend, it introduces caution into the otherwise bullish structure. Traders may interpret this as a sign of near-term profit-taking, especially with BTC hovering below major resistance.
Therefore, watching exchange netflows in the coming days will be crucial to anticipate sentiment shifts.
Another round of profit realization?
The MVRV ratio has reached 147.63%, showing that the average BTC holder remains in profit. Historically, elevated MVRV levels signal a higher probability of profit-taking, as investors may begin to offload holdings.
However, despite this profitable positioning, conviction appears strong given the concurrent accumulation and rising S2F ratio. Still, if prices push closer to $120K without consolidation, short-term holders could realize gains.
Thus, this metric suggests a delicate balance between confidence and the lure of realized profits.
$120K: The next battleground
Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap shows dense clusters of leveraged positions building just below the $120K mark.
These areas represent potential flashpoints, where rapid price movements could trigger a cascade of liquidations.
As prices approach this zone, traders may face amplified volatility. Consequently, a clean break above $120K could lead to short squeezes, while rejection may provoke sharp corrections.
Therefore, this level has become a psychological and structural battleground that could determine Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.
Will conviction outweigh caution for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s bullish structure is reinforced by strong accumulation, rising scarcity, and profitable holders. However, short-term caution arises from rising exchange inflows and heavy leverage near $120K.
This critical zone may either trigger a breakout or sharp correction, depending on trader behavior.
Therefore, the market’s next direction hinges on whether long-term conviction can outweigh mounting short-term sell pressure and liquidation risk.
