Key Takeaways
Bitcoin traded at $111,398 while the NVT Ratio fell to 33.8. Transaction Count dropped to 97K, Network Growth slid to 72K and sentiment turned negative. Can BTC hold $105K?
Bitcoin [BTC] has faced a sharp retreat from its $124K ATH, bringing a mix of fear and resilience across wallet groups.
Smaller holders resumed accumulation, while larger wallets continued to distribute, creating a standoff around the $105K zone.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $111,398 after slipping more than 3% in 24 hours. If buyers defended this level, confidence might have been rebuilt.
However, a failure to hold could accelerate fear-driven selling and trigger deeper corrections.
Is a falling NVT ratio flashing a warning sign?
The NVT Ratio sat at 33.8 after dropping nearly 11%, showing weaker transactional strength relative to valuation.
This imbalance between market cap and on-chain activity hinted at reduced organic demand. Traders could have seen this as a warning of weakening fundamentals.
If NVT continued to trend downwards, Bitcoin could face difficulty sustaining stability above critical support levels, even if some holders remain committed to accumulation.
Fading demand
Bitcoin’s on-chain activity painted another cautious picture. Bitcoin’s Transaction Count slipped to 97K, while Network Growth fell to 72K.
These steep declines suggest fewer active users and lower adoption momentum, signaling that overall market engagement has weakened significantly.
On top of that, the sharp contraction highlighted slowing demand after record highs.
Unless these metrics bounce back soon, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain higher valuations as the pool of active participants continues to shrink.
2 factors driving more fear
Market emotions have tilted bearish, as Weighted Sentiment dropped to –1.06, while Social Dominance slipped to 25.56%.
Together, these pointed to fading confidence and a weaker role for Bitcoin in market discussions. Naturally, lower dominance often aligned with capital rotation into altcoins or exits from crypto.
Having said that, the mix of negative sentiment and falling dominance was likely to magnify volatility. If sentiment failed to recover, psychological pressure alone could have fueled further downside.
Bottom line
Bitcoin’s outlook leaned bearish despite some accumulation from smaller wallets.
The decline in NVT, shrinking Network Growth, and negative sentiment outweighed resilience, suggesting the $105K level could eventually give way.
Short-term rebounds remained possible, but the broader trend pointed toward deeper corrections before any sustainable recovery.
