Key Takeaways
Bitcoin holds above $100K with support from Delta Cap and institutional demand. Still, miner stress and a weaker Stock-to-Flow Ratio signal short-term risks despite ongoing accumulation.
Since mid-August, Bitcoin’s [BTC] on-chain activity has revealed diverging signals that reflect both resilience and weakness.
To begin with, Delta Cap stood at $739.4 billion, acting as a long-term valuation floor, while the Coinbase Premium Gap sat at +11.6, pointing to strong U.S. institutional demand.
Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin consolidated above $100K, signaling investor conviction. Historically, sustained premiums have preceded major uptrends.
In effect, a rising valuation floor and institutional buying pressure may provide Bitcoin with a robust cushion, even during sharp market corrections.
Does the Puell Multiple’s decline hint at miner stress?
While structural support appears strong, miners are showing signs of revenue pressure.
The Puell Multiple has dropped by more than 20% to 1.04, suggesting profitability is weakening compared to the yearly average.
In the past, such levels highlighted periods when miners were forced to sell, adding potential headwinds to price stability.
Having said that, some investors viewed these drops as accumulation windows, particularly when prices remained above long-term floors.
Therefore, the latest decline adds caution but does not fully undermine Bitcoin’s broader trajectory, especially if institutional demand remains steady.
Is the Stock-to-Flow model losing relevance?
The Stock-to-Flow Ratio, once a go-to gauge of scarcity, told a different story. It fell sharply to about 48.2K, sparking debate over whether the model still carried predictive weight.
Historically, elevated S2F levels coincided with post-halving surges, but the recent decline suggests softer supply-driven tailwinds.
However, many analysts argue that demand-side forces now carry greater influence than supply metrics.
Hence, while the S2F drop raises concerns, it does not negate the impact of institutional buying or long-term accumulation trends.
Do exchange outflows still confirm accumulation?
At press time, Bitcoin recorded Net Outflows of nearly $97 million from centralized exchanges. Historically, outflows indicate investor preference for holding over selling, reducing immediate supply pressure.
This activity fit neatly with the Coinbase Premium Gap, reinforcing the narrative that institutions were absorbing available supply.
Even so, persistent miner stress and weaker scarcity metrics kept the outlook balanced on a knife’s edge.
Conclusively, Bitcoin’s on-chain data painted a divided picture.
While Delta Cap strength, institutional premiums, and consistent exchange outflows show resilience, weakening miner revenues and a sharp Stock-to-Flow decline inject caution.
Ultimately, whether Bitcoin can sustain consolidation above $100K depends on whether institutional support outweighs these structural stress points.
For now, momentum still leans toward accumulation within a strong long-term uptrend.
