Bitcoin Price Gets a Boost From Producer Price Index Print

Bitcoin ticked higher after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the producer price index dropped 0.1% in August—suggesting there’s less pressure on producers to raise prices and making a Fed rate cut more likely next week.

As of this writing, BTC has gained about 0.5% in the past hour since the new U.S. economic data was released and is trading over  $114,000. That puts Bitcoin 2.3% higher than it was this time last week, but still 5.7% below its price 30 days ago. Ethereum also got a slight boost from the PPI print, gaining 0.2% in the past hour to trade at $4,382.10, according to price aggregator Coingecko.

The BTC price levity arrives as users on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt parent company Dastan, are becoming more certain that the world’s oldest cryptocurrency can stay above $105,000 throughout September. Last week’s pessimism faded over the weekend and now 72% of users believe Bitcoin can stay above the key price level.

The BLS noted, however, that “core” PPI, which strips out food, energy, and trade,rose 0.3% month over month, its fastest pace since March. That has lifted the year-over-year core rate to 2.8%, highlighting sticky underlying price pressures even as goods inflation stays subdued.

James Toledano, the chief operating officer at Unity Wallet, told Decrypt that it’s tomorrow’s consumer price index, which focuses more on what people actually pay for goods and services, that could introduce some chop to markets.

“Lower-than-expected CPI often fuels optimism for easing and rallies crypto, while hotter data usually triggers pullbacks,” he said. “Past patterns confirm the market’s sensitivity to inflation data as a gauge of monetary policy direction, and remember crypto often reflects traditional risk-on/risk-off dynamics.”

When market sentiment makes traders risk-off, or averse to risk, they tend to rotate out of equities and crypto in favor of more conservative plays like treasury bonds.

Toledano added that he’ll be watching the Crypto Fear & Greed Index closely to get a clear pulse on how traders are positioning themselves ahead of the next Federal Open Markets Committee meeting.

As of this writing, last month’s greed reading, at 70, has given way to a very neutral rating at 49.

With a week left until the FOMC announces its decision on federal interest rates, it’s less a matter of whether the Fed will cut rates and more a question of how much. According to the CME FedWatch tool 88% of investors expect to see the governors approve a 25 basis point cut and 12% think the Fed will hand down a 50 basis point cut.

“Into next week, non-farm payrolls, unemployment, and the FOMC will be decisive—any policy shift typically drives immediate crypto volatility,” Toledano said.