Key Takeaways
Profitability is high, but valuation and scarcity metrics show weakening strength. Meanwhile, liquidity flows highlight uncertainty, leaving Bitcoin’s market outlook indecisive.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] Percent Supply in Profit climbed to 92%, a level that historically preceded bullish phases but also profit-taking risks. At this stage, most holders were in gains, suggesting broad market strength.
By the way, historically speaking, whenever profit supply crossed 90%, rallies extended further. Yet, corrections also occurred when enthusiasm peaked.
Investors now face a mixed scenario where optimism is abundant, but caution persists.
Having said that, sustainability still depended on whether buyers held firm or sellers seized the chance to lock in gains.
Falling NVM ratio causes a problem
The Network Value to Metcalfe Ratio (NVM) fell by 4.54%, showing cracks in Bitcoin’s valuation relative to network activity.
This metric compares market capitalization against the strength of active connections, often used to gauge fair pricing.
A decline suggested market value might be running ahead of network fundamentals. Historically, falling NVM ratios have often preceded slowdowns or weaker price expansions.
Even so, the network retained significant weight. Traders now weighed whether growth could sustain while network signals softened.
Stock-to-Flow ratio weakness adds doubt
Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio dropped a sharp 42.86%, weakening one of the longest-standing scarcity models.
This ratio calculates scarcity by comparing circulating supply to new issuance, historically tied to price growth cycles.
A sharp drop showed that scarcity dynamics were not as robust, adding doubt to supply-driven narratives.
Of course, many analysts had already questioned the Stock-to-Flow model’s reliability. Still, its decline reflected reduced confidence in long-term scarcity valuation.
Exchange flows reveal liquidity pressure
Bitcoin’s Spot inflows and outflows show shifting liquidity, with the $39.13 million positive inflow at press time, reflecting cautious positioning.
Sustained inflows increase available supply on exchanges, often linked to heightened selling pressure. Conversely, consistent outflows usually indicate accumulation and reduced sell-side risk.
The recent Netflow highlighted short-term uncertainty, as liquidity is neither completely draining nor consolidating.
Traders now monitor whether inflows increase further, signaling a bearish tilt, or whether outflows regain dominance, reinforcing bullish confidence.
Can Bitcoin’s bullish signals overcome its cracks?
While 92% of supply in profit reflects strong optimism, the 4.54% NVM decline and 42.86% drop in Stock-to-Flow reveal cracks in valuation and scarcity models.
Moreover, spot inflows highlight lingering liquidity risks.
Taken together, these conflicting signals show that Bitcoin’s market currently lacks a clear direction. The outlook is indecisive, and traders should approach with caution as conditions remain fragile.
