In brief
- Myriad traders see roughly a nearly 50/50 chance Trump visits China before year-end 2025.
- Reuters and WSJ report that Beijing has invited Trump, while the TikTok deal talks signal warming ties.
- Kalshi and Polymarket host related markets on a potential Trump-Xi meeting this year.
A popular Myriad market asks whether Donald Trump will visit China before the end of the year, and traders are split almost 50/50, pricing a roughly 48% chance that the former president sets foot on the mainland.
The Myriad contract resolves “Yes” only if Trump physically enters mainland China—airspace overflights or Hong Kong/Taiwan stopovers don’t count—before the end of the day on December 31. The resolution will be confirmed using official White House releases or AP/Reuters reporting. See the full rules here.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt‘s parent company, DASTAN.)
Elsewhere, Polymarket lists a “Trump travel in 2025” market where China is among the top destinations, trading around 52% “yes” as of this writing range.
Kalshi—the regulated U.S. event-futures exchange—runs a narrower contract on whether Trump meets Xi Jinping this year, a move that would likely coincide with a formal state visit. Kalshi users are bullish on the prospects, penciling in a 73% change of Trump meeting the Chinese president.
What big media says
Reuters reports that Washington and Beijing have agreed on a TikTok framework that includes a Trump-Xi call, signaling a thaw and opening for higher-level meetings.
AP and The Guardian confirm that the White House extended TikTok’s divestiture deadline, suggesting ongoing senior dialogue.
WSJ and SCMP report that Beijing has formally invited Trump and that negotiations for a state visit are well underway, with trade deliverables under discussion.
This backdrop makes a 2025 trip a live possibility—exactly the kind of binary event prediction markets are built to price.
How to read the odds
Myriad: Direct “visit” bet—literal boots on the ground in China.
Kalshi: Focused on Trump meeting various world leaders, with Xi holding a strong lead among contenders.
Polymarket: Gives a comparative sense of China versus other possible destinations, acting as a sentiment barometer.
Traders watch all three: A leaked advance team trip or confirmed Trump-Xi call can quickly move prices across platforms.
Bottom line
With diplomatic prep accelerating, a Trump trip to China is plausible—and tradable. If you want the purest market on whether he goes, Myriad’s market is the cleanest play. For regulatory-compliant exposure, there’s Kalshi, and for a broader sentiment snapshot, Polymarket’s travel board is worth watching.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.
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