Key Takeaways
What triggered concerns for ONDO?
Whale deposits of 26.28 million ONDO, including $6.19 million to Arthur Hayes’ wallet, raised fears of strong exchange-driven sell pressure.
What do metrics signal for ONDO’s outlook?
ONDO’s MVRV Z-score at -0.77 shows holders underwater, while an NVT Ratio above 25 highlights fragile demand and valuation risks.
Ondo Finance [ONDO] faced heightened scrutiny after a Gnosis Safe Proxy wallet deposited 26.28 million tokens, worth $24.7 million, into exchanges within just 10 hours.
Of this, 6.57 million ONDO, worth $6.19 million, went directly to Arthur Hayes’ Bybit wallet. On-chain data showed his wallet accumulated 36.88 million ONDO, worth $37.56 million, over the past month.
Such movements increase supply pressure and raise concerns over potential sell-offs.
Historically, large inflows into centralized exchanges often coincide with upcoming volatility, and ONDO’s situation reflects a similar setup.
Can ONDO defend support, or will resistance dominate?
ONDO’s price action showed repeated struggles between support and resistance. After forming a cup-and-handle pattern earlier this year, the token attempted several breakouts.
However, price failed to hold above the descending channel’s resistance near $1.15. The latest action tested support at $0.82–$0.85 before rebounding toward $0.93.
Such swings signaled ongoing indecision between buyers and sellers.
Even with rebounds, sustained inflows to exchanges may cap upside momentum, keeping support under pressure.
Source: TradingView
MVRV suggests holders are underwater
Santiment data showed ONDO’s MVRV Z-score at -0.77. This indicated most holders were underwater, limiting the incentive to accumulate.
Historically, such phases often lead to reduced buying pressure because fewer traders view the market as attractive.
Moreover, with heavy deposits entering exchanges, the likelihood of additional sell pressure grows stronger.
Rising NVT ratio sparks warning signals
ONDO’s NVT Ratio climbed above 25, signaling high valuation relative to transaction activity. For context, spikes in this metric often coincide with overheated conditions.
And of course, this raises the likelihood of short-term corrections.
Despite some attempts at recovery in price action, valuation risks continued to weigh heavily on sentiment.
Importantly, the gap between activity and valuation suggested organic demand had not yet matched network value, keeping sentiment fragile.
To sum up, ONDO found itself under mounting pressure as whale deposits amplify exchange supply and valuation metrics flash warnings.
While temporary rebounds surfaced, repeated resistance rejections and weak transaction dynamics fueled uncertainty.
A decisive hold at $0.85 support may set up a rebound, but failure could expose ONDO to deeper downside.
