In brief
- Bitcoin was trading at $111,336, down 1.8% daily and 5.4% weekly, as investors awaited tomorrow’s PCE inflation data release.
- Of prediction market users, 61% expect BTC to drop to $105,000 before reaching new highs, with selling pressure between $115,000-$119,000.
- Fed rate cut odds stand at 83.4% for next month’s meeting, but higher inflation could signal more hawkish policy and pressure crypto markets.
Bitcoin has been hovering above$111,000 a day ahead of new U.S. inflation data that will play a big role in determining whether the Federal Open Markets Committee lowers interest rates for a second time in 2025.
Three analysts with whom Decrypt spoke differ about how the largest asset by market capitalization might respond.
Bitcoin was recently changing hands at $111,336, down 1.8% over the past 24 hours and 5.4% since this time last week, according to crypto price aggregator CoinGecko.
The BTC price malaise has made users of Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt parent company Dastan, doubt that the world’s oldest cryptocurrency will see $125,000 any time soon. As of Thursday morning, 61% of users think BTC will drop to $105,000 before it approaches an all-time high.
“Tomorrow’s PCE print is important because it is the Fed’s inflation gauge, and crypto traders should watch for any deviation from the expected 2.7-2.9% year-over-year reading,” Jake Kennis, a senior research analyst at Nansen, told Decrypt. “Higher-than-expected inflation could signal more hawkish Fed policy and risk-off sentiment that typically pressures crypto markets.”
A cooler-than-expected inflation reading, however, could lead to another interest rate cut,which would likely spring Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market from its recent holding pattern, Kennis added.
Economists have been forecasting that the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ core personal consumption expenditures will arrive on the higher end of that range, at 2.99%, according to recent estimates from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
At the time of writing, investors think there’s an 83.4% chance the Fed will lower interest rates at its FOMC meeting next month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That means the odds that the Fed will leave rates unchanged has doubled in the past week, going from 8.1% to 16.6% at the time of writing.
“Interesting that the market seems to be expecting a high number, but digital assets have come under pressure,” John Glover, chief investment officer at Bitcoin lender Ledn, told Decrypt.
Falling sentiment—and prices—in crypto markets has already led to a few big waves of liquidations in the past week.
“It does seem to be a clear out of weak longs,” he said, alluding to the healthy market reset seen in the past week. “But there seems to be a lot of selling pressure between $115,000 and $119,000, so we may be seeing some people taking profits who believe we have reached the end of the bull run.”
Glover added he thinks the PCE print could turn into a “non-event” unless the actual number surprises on either side of forecasts.
Dom Harz, co-founder of Bitcoin DeFi project BOB, told Decrypt the picture for BTC is more encouraging if you zoom out.
“As we come to the end of Q3 2025, Bitcoin’s stability above $110,000 isn’t just a milestone for its price, but the crystallisation of institutional trust in the digital asset,” he said.
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