Key Takeaways
What’s causing Bitcoin’s drop below $101K?
Bitcoin fell 5.30% to $100,915, driven by continued market weakness.
What does the long/short ratio reveal about market positioning?
Binance data shows 71.96% of trader accounts are long versus just 28.04% short [2.57 ratio], but actual trading volume is split 48% long and 52% short.
Bitcoin broke below $101,000 on 4 November, marking its first time under this psychological level in months.
The 5.30% drop to $101,915 continues the brutal momentum that started with October’s disappointing close.
However, long/short data reveals a dangerous divergence: retail traders are catching falling knives while smart money exits.
Bitcoin retailers buy, whales sell
Analysis of Binance Bitcoin perpetual futures data on Coinglass exposes a critical market structure split.
By account count, longs dominate massively: 71.96% of traders hold long positions versus just 28.04% holding shorts. That’s a 2.57 ratio heavily skewed toward bulls.
But volume tells a different story. Actual taker buy/sell volume shows longs at 48.01% and shorts at 51.99%, nearly balanced with a slight bearish tilt. The long/short ratio by volume sits at just 0.9234.
The divergence matters. When most accounts are long but volume skews neutral to bearish, it suggests that small retail traders are buying optimistically, while larger players with more capital are distributing into their bids.
Technical breakdown accelerates
Bitcoin fell sharply below its 20-day simple moving average and crashed through the lower Bollinger Band, technical signals showing extreme volatility and accelerating downside momentum.
Source: TradingView
The asset traded as high as $127,500 in late October before the current collapse.
Accumulation/distribution indicators show 5.19 million in selling pressure, confirming that distribution is overwhelming accumulation. This isn’t a healthy pullback; it’s active dumping into retail bids.
November extends October’s pain
Bitcoin closed October down 3.7%, its worst October since 2018, shattering expectations for the typical “Uptober” rally.
November started even worse, with the $101,000 break representing a decline of over 6% from the month’s opening levels, around $107,500.
What happens when retail is this long
Historical data shows extreme long positioning often precedes two outcomes: violent short squeezes if support holds, or brutal liquidation cascades if key levels break.
With 72% of accounts long, the market is positioned for maximum pain in either direction.
Support sits around $98,000-$100,000, and resistance reformed at $108,000-$110,000.
A breakdown below $98,000 would likely trigger massive long liquidations, potentially sending Bitcoin toward $95,000.
A recovery above $108,000 could squeeze shorts and reclaim $115,000.
For now, the divergence between retail and whale activity suggests caution. When the crowd leans one direction this heavily while volume contradicts them, the crowd usually loses.
