- February 2025 saw steep declines for Bitcoin and Ethereum, leaving investors anxious for March.
- Historical trends suggest March could bring more weakness for both BTC and ETH prices.
February 2025 has been a brutal month for the market, with both Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum [ETH] seeing their steepest declines in over ten years.
As the two dominant forces in the space struggle to regain momentum, uncertainty looms large over the market’s future.
With historical data pointing to March as a typically weak month for crypto, investors are left wondering whether this recent downturn is just the beginning of a longer slump or if a recovery is on the horizon.
BTC and ETH performance
February 2025 was marked by heightened volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum, with both assets facing significant corrections.
BTC started the month strong, hovering near local highs, but bearish pressure gradually took over, leading to a steep decline of over 12%.
Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, ETH struggled even more, underperforming BTC with a staggering 38% drop.
The widening gap between the two suggests shifting investor sentiment, potentially driven by liquidity concerns and sector-specific weaknesses.
While BTC found some support, ETH’s sharp downturn raises questions about its resilience amid broader market turbulence.
March weakness: A historical trend
Bitcoin and Ethereum have historically offered little relief in March. BTC’s average March return stood at just 3.42%, with a median of 0.51%, indicating muted or negative performance in many years.
ETH fared slightly better with an 8.22% average return, but the median of 1.80% suggesting inconsistency.
Source: X
Notably, BTC posted March declines in 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2020, while ETH suffered in 2018 and 2022.
Given BTC’s -17.39% and ETH’s -31.95% February declines in 2025, historical data suggests continued caution for March, reinforcing a seasonally weak period for both assets.
Bitcoin and Ethereum: Can they rebound in March?
Bitcoin enters March after a brutal February, shedding 17.39% — one of its worst monthly performances in recent years.
Historically, March has been a weak month, with an average return of -0.39% and a median of 0.51%, reinforcing concerns of continued downside pressure.
Source: TradingView
From a technical standpoint, BTC is struggling below its 50-day SMA ($97,570.68) and hovering near its 200-day SMA ($82,231.19).
The RSI at 36.85 suggested that the asset was still in bearish territory, but not yet deeply oversold. A brief bounce off the $80,000 support zone is visible, but the broader trend remains downward.
OBV at -92.82K reflected weak accumulation, further dimming the chances of a strong recovery.
Unless Bitcoin reclaims key levels above $90,000 with volume support, any short-term rally could be met with selling pressure.
Source: TradingView
Ethereum fared even worse than Bitcoin in February, crashing 31.95% — the steepest decline for the month in its history.
Historically, March has been lackluster for ETH, averaging 2.82%, but the median return of 1.18% suggests mixed performance.
The technicals painted a similarly bearish picture. ETH remained significantly below its 50-day SMA ($2,890.37) and 200-day SMA ($2,926.03), with the RSI at 37.82, showing mild recovery from oversold conditions.
The OBV at 10.61M suggested some accumulation, which could help ETH stabilize, but momentum remained weak.
For Ethereum to break out of its slump, it needs to reclaim the $2,500-$2,600 zone and see stronger buying volume. Otherwise, any rebounds in March may be short-lived.
Investor sentiment and market psychology
During market downturns, investor psychology plays a crucial role in shaping price action. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) often lead to panic selling, exacerbating declines beyond fundamental justifications.
As prices drop, retail investors tend to capitulate, while institutional players seek discounted entries.
The current sentiment suggests caution, but not outright capitulation. However, if macroeconomic concerns persist, sentiment could turn excessively bearish, creating opportunities for contrarian buyers.
