Key Takeaways
What’s driving Bitcoin’s bullish Q4 setup?
Soft CPI is fueling capital rotation, while strategic players are scaling massive long positions in Bitcoin, signaling strong market conviction.
Could BTC still face downside risks?
Aggressive positioning make Bitcoin vulnerable to a long squeeze, keeping BTC’s trajectory highly sensitive to the upcoming FOMC.
In September, U.S. core inflation edged up 0.1% month-over-month to 3%, returning to January levels. In market terms, prices for everyday goods continued to creep up, showing that inflation remains sticky.
Despite this, investor sentiment remains resilient.
Notably, large players are ramping up long positions in Bitcoin [BTC] Futures. In fact, some are even modeling a $160k year-end target, signaling the market is “aggressively” pricing in a potential rate cut.
Walking the fine line between bullish and blind optimism
A $300 million long bet following a CPI print is no coincidence.
For context, a top-performing trader with a perfect track record opened a 4x long on 80 BTC shortly after the 24th of October CPI release. In less than 72 hours, that position has ramped up to 1,483 BTC.
In aggregate, the trader now holds 1,563 BTC (about $174 million) and 33,270 ETH (roughly $131 million), taking the combined Bitcoin and Ethereum [ETH] exposure to $305 million, underscoring bullish conviction.
Source: X (Lookonchain)
However, with inflation staying sticky, this bet looks more like a high-risk.
Does this mean Bitcoin could be gearing up for another mid-October–style liquidation, threatening billions in long exposure to a classic squeeze? Or does this bullish setup have enough traction to keep running?
Either way, this setup reinforces AMBCrypto’s thesis that BTC’s Q4 trajectory is highly sensitive to the FOMC, now less than four days away. For a $160k target, a Fed rate cut remains the primary macro catalyst.
Traditional assets peaking: Is Bitcoin the next big play?
The “softer-than-expected” CPI print has become a key signal for Bitcoin.
For context, the Fed had penciled in a 3.1% forecast for September core inflation, but the actual 3% reading pushed rate-cut probabilities back up to 98.3%, triggering a clear shift toward bullish macro positioning for BTC.
Within this backdrop, a conservative 0.2% capital rotation from legacy assets into BTC is expected.
That inflow translates to roughly $93.8 billion of fresh capital entering the Bitcoin market, driving the price above $160k.
Source: TradingView (Gold/USD)
David Hernandez, Crypto Investment Specialist at 21Shares, told AMBCrypto,
“Today’s bounce comes just after one of the most aggressive crypto deleveraging events in recent memory… which dramatically reduced excess positioning across major centralized venues. With positioning cleaned up and macro easing now confirmed rather than speculated, the foundation for upside looks materially stronger.”
He continued,
“…BTC continues to benefit from the slow-burn flows of strategic adoption, ETF AUM stability, and improving regulatory clarity. With today’s CPI behind us, we see conditions aligning for Bitcoin to finish the year with momentum, with strong potential to reach another all-time high before 2026.”
In short, softer inflation and rising rate-cut bets set the stage for Q4.
Technically, Gold [XAU] is flashing topping signals after hitting a $4,381 ATH, sliding 4% on the week (the first negative weekly close in nine weeks) while Bitcoin has rebounded 3% to $112k over the same period.
From a market perspective, capital is rotating back into risk assets.
Within this backdrop, the $300 million long position looks like a strategically timed move, with a potential Fed rate cut acting as the primary macro catalyst, keeping Bitcoin’s $160k target well within reach.
