- Bitcoin leverage is rising fast, with Taker Buy/Sell Ratios and Open Interest surging.
- Could macro surprises trigger another April-style 20% liquidation?
Bitcoin [BTC] is wrapping up Q2 with strength. It has rebounded 7% on the week and locked in 30% quarterly gains, even as macro headwinds piled up: April’s sharp correction, the Fed’s hawkish tone, and the conflict in the Middle East.
On the surface, it looks like BTC is shrugging off risk. However, CryptoQuant’s Spot vs. Derivative Volume Ratio says otherwise. By end-May, the ratio plunged to 0.05, a level last seen pre-election.
Though the ratio has rebounded slightly since, AMBCrypto data reveals BTC’s 7% weekly gain isn’t a clean breakout.
Instead, three key catalysts appear to be driving the volatility, shaping a path that’s far from linear.
Buckle up for a volatile week
Bitcoin began June at $104,785 and is on track to end the month with a modest 2.89% gain, a sharp cooldown from May’s 10.99% rally.
The recent slowdown in momentum has been largely attributed to war-related fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), which has capped upside potential. Now, attention is shifting from price action to broader macroeconomic pressures.
This week brings several key U.S. economic reports, starting with a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, followed by data releases on non-farm payrolls, unemployment, and manufacturing activity.
With just 30 days until the next FOMC meeting, where policymakers will weigh potential rate cuts, these reports will be crucial in shaping expectations.
Markets are already leaning dovish, as reflected by a 7.7% drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield this week.
Source: Trading Economics
Still, overall sentiment remains cautious.
Polymarket shows 82% odds against a rate cut, as persistent inflation and renewed tariff risks limit the Fed’s flexibility. The modest 0.1% MoM rise in May’s CPI further strengthens the hawkish narrative, cutting seem unlikely.
That’s why this week’s economic data takes center stage.
If job and manufacturing figures come in weaker than expected, it could trigger risk-on momentum.
For Bitcoin, that may be the catalyst it needs—a soft macro print could pave the way for a clean breakout above $110K.
Bitcoin leverage builds fast as traders bet on breakout
Bitcoin buyers are piling in hard.
At press time, Deribit’s Taker Buy/Sell Ratio surged to an extreme 12.5, signaling clear dominance from aggressive longs.
Across all exchanges, the ratio has climbed back to early June levels, while Open Interest was up 1.63% to $72 billion.
That’s enough to confirm that leverage is building again. On the surface, there’s no overheating, technical indicators remain neutral, and sentiment hasn’t tipped into euphoria.
In fact, Bitcoin’s spot vs. derivatives volume ratio has seen a minor jump to 0.07, a level last seen in early May.
That suggests this rally is still being driven by speculative flows, not organic spot demand.
Source: CryptoQuant
Now, with July front-running critical macro reports, Trump’s high-stakes tariffs coming back into play, and futures traders piling into longs as if a rate cut is guaranteed, the conditions are eerily reminiscent of early April.
So, is Bitcoin staring down another 20%+ correction?
If this week’s data breaks against expectations, and leverage remains elevated, the downside risk is real.
