- Bitcoin broke $94K as Binance Reserve Ratio hinted at fresh capital ready to enter.
- Historical signal from the $76K level reappears, echoing 2020 and 2022 pre-rally setups.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] next big move might already be in motion. The bitcoin-to-stablecoin reserve ratio on Binance has flipped bullish near the $76K mark, signaling a surge in stablecoin reserves.
Historically, similar patterns in 2020 and late 2022 preceded major BTC rallies, suggesting that fresh capital could soon flood into the market.
BTC breaks through 94K as signal flashes at $76K
At press time, Bitcoin has decisively broken through the $94K barrier, cementing its strength after weeks of tight-range consolidation.
What makes this breakout particularly compelling is the timing: the Binance Bitcoin/Stablecoin Reserve Ratio, a key liquidity signal, flashed bullish around the $76K-$77K range.
Source: CryptoQuant
According to Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson, the signal captures a crucial dynamic: stablecoin reserves on Binance are now growing faster than Bitcoin Reserves.
In simpler terms, the exchange is flush with potential buying power, just waiting to deploy. Historically, when stablecoins pile up relative to BTC, it has often been a precursor to aggressive buying and stronger price action soon after.
The green “signal” zones on the accompanying chart show exactly that… and so far, the market is following the script.
Source: CryptoQuant
Additional support for the bullish setup comes from a sharp rise in Bitcoin exchange outflows. The latest spike aligned with BTC breaking $94K, signaling investors are moving coins off exchanges, a typical sign of long-term holding intent.
This marks one of the largest outflow surges since mid-February, tightening supply just as demand picks up.
Then and now
This isn’t the first time this metric has provided traders with an early signal.
In early 2020, following the infamous “Coronadump,” the ratio flipped bullish as sidelined capital—primarily in stablecoins—flowed back into the market. The result? Bitcoin surged from below $6K to new all-time highs above $60K within a year.
By late 2022, amidst a bruised crypto market recovering from major collapses, the same reserve ratio pattern reappeared. Bitcoin once again rebounded, climbing from $16K lows to reclaim the $30K mark by 2023.
In both instances, the signal preceded notable inflows, not only in price but also in volume and momentum.
Each time, the pattern coincided with a shift in macro sentiment, suggesting that institutional and large players were ready to move sidelined capital back into the market.
Now, in 2025, the pattern has reemerged, sparking speculation about whether history might repeat itself.
What makes this time different?
Of course, no two market cycles are ever the same, and the conditions surrounding this latest signal are no exception.
Today’s market has matured significantly. Post-ETF institutional participation has reshaped liquidity dynamics, increasing base demand while tempering the wild volatility seen in earlier cycles.
However, the macro environment is less accommodating. While stablecoin reserves are growing, overall liquidity remains tight.
High interest rates and cautious risk sentiment mean that capital rotation into crypto could progress more slowly, despite strong interest.
Bitcoin itself has also evolved. It is no longer purely a speculative asset but is increasingly regarded as a treasury reserve and geopolitical hedge.
As a result, today’s inflows tend to be steadier, more deliberate, and more resilient during market pullbacks.
