- Bitcoin slipped below its $99k STH realized price as whale activity and technical momentum weakened
- Without OG whale support or buying pressure, BTC risks deeper correction
Bitcoin [BTC] just lost its footing again.
Slipping below a key cost basis for short-term holders, the market’s favorite cryptocurrency is starting to look a little light on conviction. Behind the scenes? The big wallets have been unusually quiet, and that silence is saying a lot.
STH realized price breached – Can $99 hkold the line?
Bitcoin has dipped below the STH realised price at $99k, marking a potentially critical shift in market sentiment. This level represents the average acquisition cost for BTC bought within the last 155 days – A cohort that often fuels near-term momentum.
Slipping beneath this threshold has usually aligned with periods of market weakness or reset.
Source: Alphractal
In fact, the latest chart from Alphractal highlighted the STH-MVRV ratio dipping close to 1 – A sign of reduced short-term profit margins.
If this zone fails to hold, we may be staring down a deeper correction before the next wave of conviction buyers step in.
Old money stays on the sidelines
Bitcoin’s OG whales, the ones who truly move markets – aren’t biting yet.
On-chain data revealed that transaction volumes exceeding $100,000 have been stuck in neutral territory, mimcking the same subdued activity last seen in 2020.
Source: Alphractal
Unlike the 2021-2022 bull run, during which whale transfers spiked dramatically, the ongoing cycle lacks that telltale surge of conviction from legacy holders.
Without their participation, Bitcoin’s latest move risks being built on thinner liquidity and weaker support.
A tale of momentum and support
Finally, the technicals didn’t seem to offer much relief either.
Bitcoin’s RSI slipped to 41.5, hovering near oversold territory, while the OBV continued to decline – A sign that buying pressure has been weakening, despite the price attempting a minor bounce.
Source: TradingView
At the time of writing, the price seemed to be struggling below the 50-day SMA, further reinforcing the short-term bearish bias.
Despite a slight intraday uptick, there’s little to suggest a strong reversal is in play. Unless volume picks up meaningfully and RSI reclaims strength, BTC’s recent drop could evolve into something more sustained.
