Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s rise shows structural backing, unlike May’s leverage-driven breakout. Key resistance sits at $112,361, where a short squeeze could trigger upside, but further gains hinge on Q3 liquidity dynamics.
On the 9th of July, Bitcoin’s [BTC] rise to a new all-time high at $111,936 sparked fresh speculation on how far this breakout can stretch.
At press time, traders are stacking shorts in the orderbook, as is typical when front-running a potential rejection.
Case in point: May’s liquidity flush. When BTC failed to hold its then-ATH, it triggered the largest single-day long liquidation of the month.
In turn, setting off a deeper cascade that bottomed BTC at $100,424 exactly two weeks later.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Will this cycle defy that pattern?
Glassnode data suggests it might. BTC’s realized cap has surged by $4.4 billion to $976 billion, moving in lockstep with Bitcoin’s rise to its new all-time high.
For context, that’s real capital rotation into BTC.
This could mark a key divergence. Back in May, Bitcoin’s rise was driven largely by leverage, with Open Interest (OI) exploding to a record $81.09 billion, while realized cap barely budged, hinting at speculative froth.
This time? OI hasn’t even cracked $80 billion. If this divergence sticks, it may invalidate the short-heavy setup currently dominating the order book.
Bitcoin’s rise tests resistance as liquidity builds
As noted, volatility at this stage is a given, but absorbing it without breaking structure will depend heavily on FOMO-driven flows.
Notably, despite 100% of BTC holders now sitting in profit, analysts still project $130k as the next major target. Until then, selling pressure remains surprisingly restrained, with no broad profit-taking visible on-chain.
In fact, in contrast to the May rally when smart money offloaded into strength, this breakout is seeing whales scale in near the top. That aggressive positioning from deep pockets may just be what sustains Bitcoin’s rise from here.
Source: Glassnode
If the current structure holds, the next key resistance lies at $112,361, precisely where a $17 million short liquidation cluster could act as a launchpad for a sharp upside move.
As for the bigger picture? Until bulls break this resistance zone with real conviction, Bitcoin’s rise toward higher targets will hinge on how liquidity maps out through Q3.
