Key Takeaways
Bitcoin faces intense bearish futures pressure, yet strong exchange buying signals potential for a rebound. A short squeeze is possible, but panic selling could push prices toward $110k if sentiment worsens.
With Bitcoin[BTC] trading within the lower boundary of the consolidation range around $115k, market participants are turning bearish.
As such, capital inflow into the futures market is surging amid increased demand for short positions.
But is this a long-term concern or a short-term exhaustion?
Bitcoin’s bearish pressure soars
According to CryptoQuant’s analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s Futures Net Position has plummeted into negative territory.
After this dip, Open Interest Net Position breached the $100 million, reaching the highest levels of bearish pressure in three weeks.
Source: CryptoQuant
Typically, when this metric hits extreme bearish levels, it indicates that traders are heavily shorting the market. Thus, most market participants are expecting prices to dip in the near term.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s Open Interest (OI) soared to a new all-time high of $44.68 billion, at press time.
This massive surge reflects higher capital inflow into the futures market.
Source: CryptoQuant
With Net position change hitting the highest negative level while OI is rising, it suggests that most of these traders are shorting the market.
However, such extreme negative OI divergence could catalyze a short squeeze if the price rebounds. Still, the risk of further decline remains as long as OI remains within the zone of maximum bearish pressure.
Exchange activity offers mixed signals
Interestingly, despite the rising OI divergence, exchanges are recording substantial buying activity. On the 25th of July, Exchange Netflow declined to a monthly low of -16.9k BTC, a clear accumulation signal.
Source: CryptoQuant
When Netflow and OI position dips in tandem, it suggests that investors are cautious and moving assets to self-custody. At the same time, large entities or smart money are positioning for further decline through futures.
Such a market behaviour indicates a mismatch in sentiment among market players.
A decline for BTC or a mere bear trap?
Notably, the increased bearishness in the Futures while buying activity remains elevated poses a short squeeze risk.
With many investors shorting the market, if the buying pressure absorbs the selling pressure, BTC could rebound, leading to short liquidations.
This is because the current price drawdown remains within a historically normal range. For instance, in June, the maximum weekly price drop reached a low of 3.8%.
Source: CryptoQuant
The recent 6% pullback in Bitcoin remains within its typical volatility range—only 2.2% below average and far from extreme levels.
This suggests the dip could be a healthy correction within the current consolidation phase.
If the market cools off and stabilizes, it may rebound, triggering a short squeeze that could push BTC back up to $117k.
However, if investor sentiment worsens and panic selling begins, prices could slide further to $110k.
