- After a major dip, Bitcoin recovered somewhat with a daily hike of 6.75%
- Crypto could decline further if S&P 500 Index drops by predicted 5%
Since the inauguration of President Donald Trump and the subsequent trade wars, U.S markets have suffered significant losses across the board.
In the face of uncertain macroeconomic conditions and political issues, the U.S market is seeing a strong decline. As expected, these market conditions have considerably affected the wider crypto market, with Bitcoin dropping to its pre-election levels on the charts.
Source: X
These prevailing conditions have left stakeholders talking about Bitcoin’s trajectory and its reaction to U.S market volatility.
In fact, according to CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler, the S&P 500 is set to register another loss of 5% before the market stabilizes. The analyst believes this is worrying for the crypto market. Especially since Bitcoin has an 80% correlation with the S&P 500 Index.
Hence, based on this analogy, Bitcoin could decline as well if the U.S market continues to report losses.
S&P 500 erases post-election gains
The decline in the S&P 500 has seen major indices erase their post-election gains. They are currently at their pre-election levels (November 2024). For example – The S&P 500 index has fallen by 45.22 points over the last 5 days alone.
Source: Google Finance
This trend has persisted across the wider markets too.
Consider this – The Nasdaq 100 saw all the gains erased, going back to July 2024, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones are now trading at Q4 2024 levels. Equally, the mid-cap S&P 400 erased its gains since March 2024, with the same recently hitting a yearly low too.
This trend is a product of recently released data from the CPI, the Consumer Index FOMC meetings, and political conditions.
With the whole U.S market dipping, the trend has heavily affected the crypto market. The same can be evidenced by both Bitcoin and altcoins recording massive losses across the board.
Bitcoin’s reaction to market volatility
Bitcoin tends to react strongly to U.S market volatility.
For instance, when the S&P 500 fell by 45 points, BTC also declined to hit a 4-month low. As the S&P 500 recovered by 1.59% in the next 24 hours, so did Bitcoin. Worth pointing out, however, that BTC’s recovery was worth 6.74%, a hike that allowed it to reclaim $84k on the charts.
Source: Cryptoquant
This connection appears so because of U.S investors – Both institutions and individuals. This can evidenced by a negative Coinbase premium index, which has remained so for the past week now.
The drop in the S&P 500 index coincided with a weekly long drop in the Coinbase index – A sign that U. S investors, especially, institutions are now bearish. Thus, sellers are dominating stock markets as well as crypto markets. Therefore, a strong recovery for the U.S. market will see Bitcoin also make considerable gains.
Therefore, since the S&P 500 index is currently rising as the markets start to cool down, we could also see Bitcoin’s price recover. At this level, a recovery could see BTC reclaim $86k, which will strengthen the crypto’s attempt to hit $90k again. However, if the U.S market sees more negative news, more depreciation may be around the corner.
