- Whale capitulation and OM’s breakdown from $6 to $0.42 reflected intense sell-side pressure.
- On-chain indicators stayed bearish, with both MVRV and RSI buried deep in oversold territory.
Mantra [OM] has entered a highly volatile phase after a whale deposited 2 million OM, valued at $871K, into Binance, realizing a staggering $25.44 million loss.
This move followed an earlier 4 million OM withdrawal (valued at $27.18 million) just six weeks ago, highlighting the scale of unrealized-to-realized pain among large holders.
Such abrupt and substantial losses often unsettle markets, especially when executed by large holders.
Did OM’s falling channel break all hope?
OM’s price action paints a grim technical picture.
At press time, Mantra traded at $0.4152, down 4.93% in the last 24 hours. The token recently broke down from a descending channel structure, accelerating its fall from above $6 to under $0.50.
This collapse formed a sharp wick that hints at panic-driven liquidation, typical of capitulation scenarios.
Having said that, the RSI hovered at 17.22—firmly in oversold territory—while the MACD histogram began turning positive. Despite these exhaustion signals, the market lacks clear bullish catalysts.
Source: TradingView
Are fundamentals deteriorating?
Meanwhile, fundamentals weren’t doing Mantra any favors. IntoTheBlock showed that all four core metrics—Net Network Growth, In-the-Money addresses, Whale Concentration, and Large Transactions—flashed bearish signals.
Net Network Growth showed weak adoption at just 0.69%.
Meanwhile, only -2.13% of holders are in profit, highlighting poor entry points across the board. Concentration among large holders is slipping at -0.05%, suggesting whales are exiting positions.
Most notably, Large Transactions have dropped by -11.29%, implying a sharp reduction in high-volume movements.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Do MVRV and NVT hint at reversal or risk?
From a valuation perspective, OM remained stuck between two extremes.
The MVRV Z-score sat at -2.36, reflecting deep unrealized losses across the board. Historically, such readings have preceded market bottoms—but only when paired with fresh demand.
However, relying on MVRV alone is risky without confirmation from price action or increased demand. If new investors interpret this as a value zone, accumulation might follow.
The NVT ratio has surged to 26.37, suggesting the token’s market capitalization far exceeds actual on-chain activity. This implies the current price is not justified by usage, hinting at overvaluation.
Source: Santiment
In contrast, the Stock-to-Flow Ratio recently plunged to 0.834, showing a dramatic shift from perceived scarcity to heightened token circulation.
Together, these metrics tell a conflicting story: while NVT warns of inflated valuation, the drop in stock-to-flow reflects a collapse in long-term holding conviction.
These extremes signal a market caught between speculation and fear, lacking clear direction.
Has OM bottomed, or is there more pain to come?
While OM shows signs of technical exhaustion, sentiment remains bearish. The whale exit, weak onchain activity, and valuation extremes suggest uncertainty.
Unless fresh demand or bullish catalysts emerge, such as effective coin burn impact or accumulation, the path remains unclear.
OM may see a short-lived relief bounce, but long-term recovery depends on structural improvements and returning investor confidence.
