- It may be a good idea to buy more during times of market-wide panic, and the recent FUD wave is a good buying opportunity
- Hike in CDD over the past two weeks with BTC close to $100k indicated a quick recovery wasn’t likely the answer
Bitcoin [BTC] might not have reached its bottom yet, according to a recent analysis by AMBCrypto. This seemed to hold true at press time too, with the 24-hour long/short ratio flashing a reading of 0.91.
Among the takers (market orders), the shorts accounted for 52.35% of the volume – Indicating bearish sentiment.
Source: Santiment Insights
In a Santiment Insights post, user Brian pointed out that negative, bearish social media engagement might be the best time to buy more crypto.
Do markets move contrary to the majority’s expectations, and where might the market head next?
Bitcoin holders and buyers need not panic
The social volume data from November showed that spikes in engagement related to selling in the crypto sphere were indeed followed by price spikes upwards. The 12th and 13th of November saw higher number of calls for selling as Bitcoin’s price approached $90k. However, the king crypto was quick to race towards $100k thereafter.
Another instance was the short-term consolidation around $95k in the first week of December. Increased bearish engagement was accompanied by a price move to $102k just two days later, and bullish sentiment accompanied the subsequent correction.
The most recent sizeable bearish social volume spike occurred on 3 February. A swift bounce from $92k to $102k followed this crash. However, since then, the short-term trend has been bearish.
A recovery following bearish engagement has not occurred over the past week. BTC’s Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric revealed that long-term holders moved a sizeable amount of Bitcoin from 3-5 February, likely for selling purposes.
This hike saw the moving average’s uptick. However, overall, the moving average has registered a decline in CDD since mid-November. The demand growth has also fallen over the past two months. Together, the CDD and demand growth metrics hinted at an increased tendency to sell/take profits in recent weeks.
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
During this time, BTC has traded within a range. Investors might begin to wonder if this resembles a distribution phase more than a consolidation before the next leg higher.
Source: BTC.D on TradingView
Another factor that has aggravated the bearish sentiment is the poor performance of the market’s altcoins. This was explained by the rising Bitcoin dominance as a share of the total crypto market cap.
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Putting everything together, while market FUD suggested that investors should buy more crypto, the BTC.D chart signaled that buying BTC could be the less risky play. Altcoins are set to perform poorly overall, although individual coins might shine.
