Bitcoin Bullish Again? Potential All-Time High in Sight: Analysis

The crypto market is showing relative calm Thursday, with top assets mostly flat on the day as traders digest positive macro news and consider where to allocate their positions.

Bitcoin gained 0.4% in the past 24 hours, trading near $109,800 after briefly reaching a daily high of $110,590, according to CoinGecko. Ethereum also climbed above $2,590, though traders remain uncertain about its direction as prices continue to move sideways.

Almost all of the top 100 coins have posted single-digit moves, with Solana meme coin Bonk being the only exception, spiking 10% in the past 24 hours.

Traditional markets rallied after stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data. The Department of Labor reported 147,000 new non-farm jobs in June, far above the 110,000 forecast and up from May’s revised 144,000 mark. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% instead of rising to the expected 4.3%, showing continued economic resilience despite Fed tightening.

The Dow rose 75 points (0.17%), the S&P 500 climbed 0.38%, and the Nasdaq led with a 0.62% gain. However, a spike in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.334% suggests investors now see less chance of imminent rate cuts, muting equity gains despite the jobs beat.

Weekly jobless claims also fell to 233,000 versus 240,000 expected, with the four-week average dropping to 241,500. The data signals ongoing labor market strength, and has traders betting the Fed will keep rates at 4.25-4.5% longer.

Bitcoin (BTC): Trying to be bullish again

Bitcoin’s daily gain to its current price of $109,781 represents measured strength rather than explosive momentum, with the flagship cryptocurrency consolidating near recent highs after briefly topping $110,500. That said, as small as today’s movement is, it was enough to make prices break the resistance of a bearish channel (yellow lines) that has been in place since the last 39 days—the day it set the current all-time high mark of $111,814.

The daily chart reveals a market in delicate balance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60 indicates healthy bullish momentum without approaching overbought territory above 70. This reading suggests Bitcoin has room to run higher before facing selling pressure from profit-taking. Traders typically view RSI readings between 50-70 as the “sweet spot” for sustained uptrends, and breaking a bearish channel at such healthy levels is good for those expecting momentum.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 12 tells a more nuanced story. ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction—readings below 20 indicate a weak or non-existent trend, while values above 25 confirm strong directional movement. Bitcoin’s current ADX suggests the market is in a consolidation phase, with neither bulls nor bears holding decisive control. This often precedes significant moves as the market coils for a breakout.

This is, of course, to be expected. Even the current bearish correction has a very light incline, and a move over the resistance in the short term cancels part of the bearish strength—not enough to say the coin is short-term bullish, but interesting to consider alongside other indicators.

The exponential moving averages paint a definitively bullish picture, especially for traders with longer time frames in mind, with the 50-day EMA positioned above the 200-day EMA. This configuration typically signals sustained buying pressure and healthy market structure. When shorter-term averages stay above longer-term ones, it indicates that recent buyers are willing to pay higher prices than historical averages.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator showing “On” status suggests volatility compression is occurring. Think of this as a spring being coiled—when the squeeze releases, it often results in explosive price movement in either direction.

In other words, there is still potential for a continuation of the bearish trend, but it is likely to see a big movement shortly as prices try to break from this zone

Key Levels:

• Immediate support: $108,000 (psychological level and recent consolidation zone)
• Strong support: $104,000 (50-day EMA convergence)
• Immediate resistance: $110,000 (psychological barrier)
• Strong resistance: $112,000 (approach to recent cycle highs)

Ethereum (ETH): Breaking free despite technical headwinds

Ethereum is slightly up today, with a small movement to its current price of $2,592 that comes after a jump yesterday that recovered prices from daily lows of $2,374.

The RSI at 57 places Ethereum in neutral territory. This middle-ground reading often indicates a market in transition, where the previous trend (bearish in this case) may be losing steam. For traders, this suggests ETH could be building a base for further upside without the immediate risk of a sharp pullback that typically accompanies overbought conditions.

The ADX reading of 12 mirrors Bitcoin’s weak trend strength, indicating Ethereum is also in a consolidation phase. However, this low ADX after a strong move up could be interpreted as the market digesting gains before the next leg higher. When ADX readings remain below 20 after significant price movement, it often signals accumulation by smart money.

The concerning technical factor is the “death cross” formation visible on the chart—the 50-day EMA sitting below the 200-day EMA, and the inability of traders to form a golden cross despite both EMAs being so close to each other. This bearish configuration typically indicates that selling pressure has dominated recent trading. However, today’s price action despite this headwind suggests buyers are stepping in with conviction, potentially setting up for a bullish crossover if momentum continues.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator showing “On” status, combined with today’s breakout move, suggests Ethereum may be in the early stages of a volatility expansion phase. When prices break higher while the squeeze is active, it often leads to sustained trending moves.

Key Levels:

• Immediate support: $2,500 (psychological level)
• Strong support: $2,400 (recent swing low)
• Immediate resistance: $2,700 (50-day EMA zone)
• Strong resistance: $2,900 (200-day EMA convergence)

Edited by Andrew Hayward