Key Takeaways
Will institutional demand fuel BTC in Q4?
Analysts expect BTC to surge above $130k in Q4.
What’s the inherent risk to the expected rally?
Whales’ profitability hit a cycle high of $10 billion and could raise the risk of sell-offs.
Bitcoin [BTC] hit a new all-time high of $125.7k over the weekend, thanks to several catalysts.
One of the factors behind the same was the massive demand from U.S Spot BTC ETFs. Last week, the products attracted $3.24 billion in Weekly Net Inflows. This highlighted an aggressive spot market-driven rally.
Source: Glassnode
The recovery lifted the altcoin sector too. However, this recovery wasn’t too last as the market corrected slightly soon after.
At press time, BTC had dipped slightly to $124.5k. Among large caps, Binance [BNB] was an outlier after rallying by about 6% in 24 hours and by over 23% in the last seven days.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Ethereum [ETH] pumped by about 12% over the 7-day period, nearly the same as BTC’s gains. Solana [SOL] and Dogecoin’s [DOGE] gains were tied at 13%, while XRP posted a recovery of 5%.
Will ‘debasement trade’ rally it higher?
Now, with the Uptober rally in full throttle, some analysts are suggesting that the uptrend could extend itself
According to JP Morgan analysts, the long-term inflation and U.S fiscal debt risk could favor gold and Bitcoin. In fact, they are calling it the ‘debasement trade.’
The year-end price target for Bitcoin among banks further seemed to reinforce the bullish outlook in Q4 and Q1 2026.
Citigroup has already issued a $133k target while JP Morgan and Standard Chartered expect the crypto to tag $165k and $200k, respectively.
Options traders have also been positioning themselves around the aforementioned targets. There seemed to be significant call buying (bullish bets) around the $130k, $180k and $150k strike prices for Q4.
However, it’s worth pointing out that these players are also heavily hedging against a correction to $85k (puts buying, massive red bar).
Source: CoinGlass
Simply put, speculators have been betting that BTC could mount above $130k in the next few weeks, with a potential price floor of $85k.
Even so, the new ATH has increased whales’ unrealized profits to a record level of $10 billion. This could increase the risk of profit-taking and derail the potential rally. In fact, some like analyst Will Clemente expect a dip, before the rally goes any higher.
Source: CryptoQuant
To put it simply, the Uptober rally has prompted Options traders to eye a potential extension of BTC’s uptrend above $130k. However, the rising risk of whale sell-offs may be worth tracking for the market’s bulls.
