In brief
- Investors are bracing for revisions to U.S. payrolls, inflation updates, and the Fed’s September 17 rate call.
- Analysts warn overlapping events, including VIX futures expiry, could set off sharp swings in risk assets.
- Ethereum shows stronger trading momentum than Bitcoin, with rising open interest and sustained spot demand.
Monday’s lull in trading for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may be short-lived, experts say, with another round of temperature checks for the U.S. economy converging amid heightened interest from experienced traders.
Eyes are now looking ahead to Tuesday’s Nonfarm Payroll revisions, Wednesday’s Producer Price Inflation, and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index reports.
Positive readings in each of those categories could influence how the U.S. Federal Reserve decides to tackle inflation through further rate cuts beyond September. A spike in inflation could force traders to reassess positions in risk assets, including crypto.
Meanwhile, the U.S. jobs market has shown a sustained downtrend in July and August, with Tuesday’s Nonfarm Payroll revisions expected to range between -450,000 and -950,000, The Kobeissi Letter tweeted Tuesday.
“Inflation is currently the unknown variable for the rate path equation,” Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, told Decrypt.
While U.S. President Donald Trump is doing a good job keeping energy prices down, he explained, “that might not be enough to contain inflation, and without a credible Federal Reserve mandate, inflation expectations can cause havoc.”
Markets face extra uncertainty on September 17 when futures tied to Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge,’ known as the VIX, expire on the same day the Fed announces its interest rate decision.
“This makes me think the VIX futures for September have priced away risk while October could be ugly,” Magadini said.
This is “a potent powder keg for volatility,” Sean Dawson told Decrypt, adding that while expiring VIX futures clear volatility hedges, the Fed’s decision will trigger a major directional shock.
Ethereum’s perpetual data shows a slightly more bullish outlook compared to Bitcoin, stemming from a sustained uptrend in cumulative spot volume data coupled with a $438 million overnight uptick in open interest to $24.3 billion, according to Coinalyze data.
In the same period, the top crypto’s open interest rose by roughly $450 million to $30.41 billion, though trading showed no clear tilt between buyers and sellers.
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