- Bitcoin was trading near the low end of its historical seasonal range.
- Bitcoin bulls were defending the crucial weekly MA50 at $75.8K, as the SOPR trend signaled a long period of consolidation.
Analysis of Bitcoin [BTC] since 2015 indicated the cryptocurrency achieved its most affordable price period, as denoted in the “10 Years of Bitcoin Seasonality in One Chart.”
Historical data confirmed that BTC maintained the shortest growth range between 0.80 and 1.00 during January and February, correlating exactly with the current position.
Bitcoin showed its greatest annual price changes throughout the time span of April through October because these months created all changes in market value.
Starting from April the growth pattern continued to stabilize until October where it continued its regular upward expansion from 1.40 to increase the price to 1.60.
Source: X
Current data suggests Bitcoin could surpass its previous all-time high by June 2025. Its projected growth may reach 2.00 or higher, with anticipated price levels between 2.20 and 2.60 from late 2024 to early 2025.
This projection relies on historical trends, where April’s seasonal uptick and October’s momentum often fueled significant gains.
Beyond June, Bitcoin’s price may remain below 1.20 unless April sees its usual upward trend, the dollar’s weakness stabilizes, or investor interest increases.
Why a new ATH for BTC is possible before June
This new anticipated ATH of Bitcoin can be backed by the fact that BTC bulls are protecting the essential 50 weekly Moving Average (MA50) by holding out at $75.8K. Currently, the price is hovering around $83.1K, just above the MA50.
Source: TradingView
The first support level has historically served as a rebound zone. For instance, Bitcoin rose from $67K in July 2024 to $83K in December, demonstrating sustained positive market movement.
Further analysis of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) trend signal suggests Bitcoin could maintain extended stability. A decrease in SOPR from 1.07 to 1.00 during January 2025 indicates that buyers have halted profit-taking.
Historically, when SOPR reached approximately 1.00—such as in mid-2023—the market often experienced price increases. This pattern suggests Bitcoin could potentially reach a new all-time high by June.
Source: Alphractal
Additionally, analyst Avocado reported that Funding Rates on Binance held a negative position of -0.02 as of March 2025 as BTC traded around $83.6K.
In June 2024, a negative Funding Rate of -0.02 triggered a price increase, pushing Bitcoin from $50K to $70K. A similar Funding Rate movement could potentially drive BTC’s price above $100K.
However, if a prolonged negative Funding Rate coincides with a failure of the MA50 support, BTC’s price could drop to $70K. This scenario could also delay the achievement of a new all-time high.
