Key Takeaways
How long has Bitcoin held above $100,000?
Bitcoin has stayed above $100K for nearly a year, its longest sustained profit period ever.
What are traders expecting next?
Institutions are betting on volatility as Bitcoin trades between $107K and $122K ahead of key U.S. data.
Bitcoin [BTC] has spent almost a year holding above $100,000, but the market’s gone quiet.
No one’s sure which way it’ll move next, and fresh money has slowed to a trickle. For now, BTC seems stuck in neutral, waiting for something to shake it loose.
Where do we go from here?
A calm like never before
In past bull cycles, Bitcoin’s euphoric peaks were brief.
Price would soar to new highs, only to crash as quickly, leaving investors trapped at the top. This time, it’s different.
Source: Alphractal
Data from Alphractal shows Bitcoin has spent nearly a year above $100K with minimal drawdowns, making this the longest sustained profit period in its history.
Source: Alphractal
The number of “days at a loss” has fallen to multi-year lows, which means most holders are still in profit and not rushing to sell.
As Joao Wedson of Alphractal notes, this cycle flipped the script, with consolidation coming before euphoria. Echoing that view, Farzam Ehlani, CEO of VALR, told AMBCrypto,
“Bitcoin’s move back above $115,000 is more than just another relief rally. It marks the beginning of another price discovery phase in the current market cycle after one of the most aggressive deleveraging phases seen in crypto market history.”
He added that whales have resumed accumulation at scale, while leverage has been flushed from the system. These conditions are usually followed by upside moves.
Bet on big moves, not directions
Source: CryptoQuant
Data from CME and Binance show traders piling into both calls and puts, betting on volatility, but not choosing a side.
OI remains concentrated in near-term expiries tied to key U.S. economic data like Core PCE and FOMC updates, showing a wait-and-see approach.
Institutions are hedging short-term risks rather than taking long-term positions, keeping Bitcoin locked between $107K and $122K. But here’s what you should also be seeing.
Source: Alphractal
According to Alphractal, Bitcoin has broken above two critical metrics: the Short-Term Holder Realized Price and the True Market Mean Price.
Source: Alphractal
Crossing these levels has so far been where the market moves from mid-cycle uncertainty to new upside momentum.
The Fibonacci-adjusted mean model supports this, showing BTC bouncing off lower bands and reclaiming equilibrium.
Ehlani noted that this kind of “technically disciplined trading rather than speculation-driven bets” shows the market is building a foundation for long-term growth, not a fleeting short squeeze.
Sentiment may be muted, but the data proves that Bitcoin’s got spirit.
