Key Takeaways
- U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded the second-largest daily inflow of $1.2 billion on the 10th of July. Traders were betting for an extended BTC rally to $120K and $130K, but miners began offloading into the rally.
Bitcoin [BTC] has hit a new all-time high (ATH) of $118k on the backdrop of strong ETF inflows and demand from treasury firms.
On the 10th of July, U.S. spot ETFs attracted $1.18 billion in daily inflow, bringing monthly demand to $2.3 billion.
In fact, that was the second-largest daily inflow since the products debuted in January 2024.
Analytics firm Ecoinometrics said that the strong ETF demand could push BTC to $119K, citing its proprietary model data.
Source: Ecoinometrics/X
At the time of its post, BTC hovered at around $112K, and soon afterward, the asset extended its rally to $118.8K. The analytics firm said,
“Bitcoin is already at an all-time high, and the macro backdrop is shifting into a full risk-on regime.”
BlackRock leads ETF demand
As expected, BlackRock’s IBIT led the Thursday demand, commanding nearly half of the inflows ($448.5 million). Fidelity’s FBTC followed closely at $324.34 million.
Overall, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF recorded $5 billion in trading volume on the 10th of July, following $3.5 billion the day before, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
The analyst projected that ETFs would likely hit a billion-dollar flow on Thursday and Friday.
“When IBIT sees big volume surges on up price days it portends big boy flows (as seen in chart) = good chance we see $1b in flows over next two days. It’s also a hair away from $80b.”
Source: Eric Balchunas/X
As of press time, the first $1 billion flow had already been hit. If Friday’s session (July 11) rake in another $1 billion in ETF inflows, then BTC could likely tag $120K or zoom above it.
The Options market data showed that the highest volume by strike for calls (bullish bets) was parked at $130K, $120K and $125K.
These suggested that bulls were betting that BTC could extend the rally and hit these levels.
Source: CoinGlass
At the same time, the downside risk positioning showed that most puts (red, bearish bets) were piled at $102K and $100K.
In other words, institutional players expected a floor price of $100K, meaning they viewed the level as the new support.
Despite the bullish structure, there appeared to be one caveat worth tracking.
CryptoQuant reported that the new ATH high had triggered miners to book profit, as indicated by the spike in Miner Position Index (MPI).
Source: CryptoQuant
While the metric’s reading was at 0.6 at the time of writing, an extended jump to 2 would mean a heightened miner sell-off. A similar move marked a local top back in May, and could be crucial to track.
