- Bitcoin’s correlation with mining stocks dropped sharply, historically a red flag for incoming price swings.
- If miners keep holding, BTC could rally; if they sell, $106K might be the next stop.
With Bitcoin [BTC] institutional adoption and acceptability at a record high, mining companies are reaping the benefits. Mining stocks are sprinting ahead.
And that might not be a good thing for BTC. Here’s why!
Iris Energy leads the charge
According to Alphractal, crypto mining stocks are surging faster than Bitcoin prices. While Bitcoin prices traded sideways near $108K, mining stocks have risen significantly.
Source: Alphractal
A standout performer? Iris Energy [IREN], which saw its market cap explode from $1.2 billion to over $4 billion in recent weeks.
Per Google Finance, IREN closed at $16.95 on the 7th of July, up 72.61% year-to-date, and even hit $17.08 in after-hours.
Source: Google Finance
Additionally, Bitdeer Technologies’ stock surged 53% to $13.30, while its market cap has increased 131% to $1.6 billion.
While major miners such as Mara Holdings struggled, their stocks are still up 9.92% over the past five days.
Source: Ainvest
With miner stocks rising, it reflects institutional interest in crypto-exposed equities, signaling positive sentiment around the Bitcoin ecosystem.
The divergence isn’t subtle
Surprisingly, BTC’s price and the market cap of miners are no longer moving in sync.
Historically, a declining correlation between the two signals a potential surge in volatility. This is because miners hold significant BTC reserves, making them key market makers.
Source: Alphractal
Miners are holding tight
Despite their soaring stock prices, miners are not selling their Bitcoin.
The miners’ reserve continued to rise, reaching 1.8 million BTC, worth approximately $195.5 billion. With such massive holdings, their actions, both on-chain and off-chain, have a direct impact on the price of Bitcoin.
Additionally, according to CryptoQuant’s data, Miner Outflow has dropped to a 1-month low of around 1K BTC — a stark pullback.
Source: CryptoQuant
When this metric declines, it suggests that miners are not sending their BTC to exchanges, resulting in fewer coins being exposed to sale.
Historically, such market behavior reduces potential selling pressure, therefore creating upward pressure on Bitcoin.
What’s next for BTC?
If miners stay in hold mode, BTC could recover and push back toward $110K, especially with less sell pressure on the order books.
But if miner sentiment flips, and they start offloading, downside risks reappear fast, with $106K as the near-term floor.
