- Bitcoin is in its third corrective phase since 2023, setting the stage for potential liftoff.
- A breakout above $100K could trigger Bitcoin’s next parabolic surge, targeting $130K in the near future.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] price action has always been a fascinating study for traders and investors, especially when it comes to identifying cyclical patterns.
Since the start of its bullish rally in early 2023, Bitcoin has entered its third corrective phase, resembling the pullbacks seen during the summers of 2023 and 2024.
These corrections have historically followed a predictable pattern, driven by shifts in key market metrics.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could remain in a range between $80K and $100K for the next 2-3 months. A decisive breakout above $100K could signal the end of this correction and the beginning of another parabolic surge.
The nature of Bitcoin’s bullish cycles
A Bitcoin bullish cycle follows a recurring pattern: rapid expansion phases, followed by multi-month consolidations.
These corrective periods, while often seen as short-term declines, serve as necessary resets, allowing markets to absorb gains before continuation.
The current bullish trend, which began in early 2023, has already witnessed two extended correction phases. One occurred in the summer of 2023 and another in mid-2024.
Both lasted approximately six months, with price action consolidating before Bitcoin resumed its upward trajectory.
The significance of UTXO age bands and Bitcoin’s summer corrections
UTXO age bands play a vital role in understanding Bitcoin’s market behavior by tracking the age distribution of holdings. The 1-3 month and 3-6 month bands highlight the activities of recent market participants, showing both accumulation and spending patterns.
Historically, when these two bands converge, Bitcoin faces resistance as the market adjusts before a breakout. During past corrections, this convergence has marked key turning points.
Source: CryptoQuant
In the summers of 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin entered multi-month corrective phases. The 3-6 month UTXO band trended upwards, closing the gap with the 1-3 month band, signaling temporary resistance. Long-term holders absorbed supply, making it difficult for Bitcoin to break above the initial rejection zones.
However, in both instances, these corrections ended with Bitcoin surging past previous highs. This historical trend suggests that the current corrective phase could lead to a decisive breakout above $100K, signaling the next leg of its bullish rally.
The current correction and path to $130K: A familiar pattern?
BTC is currently following a similar trajectory to past corrections, with the 3-6 month UTXO band rising as the price consolidates.
The ongoing correction could last another 2-3 months, with BTC ranging between $80K and $100K. If history repeats itself, this phase could serve as the foundation for the next bullish leg.
Breaking through this barrier has historically signaled the beginning of strong momentum, setting the stage for the next parabolic surge. A sustained close above $100K could ignite a rally towards $130K, following the pattern of previous cycles.
Once Bitcoin surpasses such major resistance levels, price discovery tends to accelerate. There is little historical data to guide above prior highs.
As seen in previous bull runs, clearing this resistance could open the door to rapid gains, potentially pushing Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
