On top of that, the STH Realized Price has now reached $94.5K—historically a late-cycle marker.
Source: Alphractal
Many recent buyers are holding unrealized gains, signaling potential profit-taking.
Meanwhile, LTH Realized Price remains at $33K, forming a wide divergence.
Such a gap has often preceded corrections, especially when the STH band flattens or crosses spot price from above.
The $94.5K STH RP may serve as a final support before losses, a typical turning point in past cycles. However, the current setup suggests we’re beyond the bullish crossover and into distribution territory.
Distribution is heavy, but momentum loses steam
There’s a dominant wave of distribution from STHs, with red bars consistently outpacing green accumulation spikes since early 2025.
Despite Bitcoin’s strong price action, the persistent Net Outflows suggest that recent buyers are increasingly offloading their positions into strength.
Source: Alphractal
This pattern often precedes market cooldowns, especially with STH realized price above spot. Without renewed accumulation, the market may struggle to maintain current levels, as STHs use rallies as exit liquidity.
While a post-October 2025 correction seems likely due to fading demand and halving cycles, some upside may remain.
For now, STH distribution is back.
