Bitcoin Seesaws as Investors Weigh Weak Jobs Data, Rate Cuts

The price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies seesawed on Friday as investors weighed a weaker-than-expected jobs report against the increased likelihood of rate cuts.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 22,000 in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said, while economists anticipated that the U.S. economy would add 75,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate meanwhile ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2% a month prior.

Bitcoin climbed to $113,000 following the report’s release, but then it dove $110,500, while still showing a 1.1% increase over the past day, according to crypto data provider CoinGecko. Ethereum and XRP meanwhile fell 1.1% to $4,300 and 0.7% to $2.82, respectively, over the same period. ETH was more recently down a few fractions of a percentage point, while XRP rose slightly. 

Today’s report could be a catalyst for the next leg up in crypto valuations, if stocks and other risky assets are able to hold up okay, according to Zach Pandl, head of research at the crypto asset manager Grayscale. 

A job report like Friday’s would typically trigger recession fears, he told Decrypt, but there’s an understanding that reduced immigration is negatively affecting growth. 

“We know stocks fall in a recession, but they may not fall in a sluggish labor market driven by immigration cuts,” he said. “We know that reduced immigration has played a big role, and the slowing jobs market is not just about firms pulling back on hiring or on labor demand.”

Friday’s labor snapshot included revisions for June and July, wiping away a total 21,000 jobs across both months. The U.S. economy actually lost 13,000 jobs in June, while employers added 6,000 more jobs in July than originally reported.

The weakness will lock in rate cuts from the Federal Reserve over the coming months, which will likely weigh on the value of the dollar relative to other global currencies and precious metals like gold and silver, Pandl said.

“All else equal, a weaker dollar [and[ stronger gold price is positive for Bitcoin,” he said.

The S&P 500 fell 0.8% on Friday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average meanwhile slipped 363 points, after hitting a new record high earlier in the day.

U.S. central bank Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged a sharp falloff in immigration in August. During his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, he said the labor market had reached “a curious kind of balance” that was marked by sluggishness in both the demand and supply for workers. The dynamic suggests downside risks to the labor market are increasing, he added.

With the economy appearing to weaken, traders on Friday abandoned the prospect of the Fed holding rates steady. They assigned an 88% chance of a quarter-percentage point rate cut and 12% probability of a .50% reduction , as the U.S. economy appears weaker, per CME FedWatch.