- Bitcoin’s short-term holders could be giving up following a notable crossover in the UTXO Realized Price bands.
- Coinbase Premium index was positive as BTC tested the diagonal and 200-day MA resistances.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] UTXO Realized Price bands for short-term holders suggested potential selling pressure.
The 1-week to 1-month cohort and 1-month to 3-month cohort saw considerable declines, resulting in both falling underneath the 3-month to 6-month cohort at the $85K zone.
Historically, these crossovers indicated potential bearishness, as newer investors also tend to sell at losses while cost bases experience modifications.
These short-term holders selling their Bitcoin at a loss could cause broader negative sentiment, as the crossover suggested.
Source: CryptoQuant
Having said that, the trend pointed to cooling or consolidation, with BTC struggling to reclaim the $90K handle.
BTC’s bearish signal may be cancelled if price moves above its realized price bands to surpass the key $90K threshold. BTC stayed at $80K as the short-term trend remained bearish until confidence returned to the market.
The price divergence became crucial, as a downside move beyond certain thresholds could drive seller panic, but price stability might emerge through an upward price reversal.
What CVD, OI and Coinbase Premium suggest
More analysis showed Bitcoin faced resistance at $85,250 despite a constantly positive Coinbase Premium level of 0.01%.
The spot buying volume on both Binance and Bybit reached high levels as the CVD readings reached 307.34M and 40.65M, yet the prices remained unresponsive to these behavioral signals.
Open Interest downgraded from $6.64B to $6.55B signals both possible long-term position liquidations and reduced entry of new positions, which indicates a possible weakening in market sentiment.
On top of that, Bitfinex’s bearish bias persisted, with 71,036 BTC held in position.
Even so, participants stayed cautious as BTC failed to pierce resistance despite bullish spot metrics.
Source: Kiyotaka.ai
BTC could drop below $84K and lower if the Coinbase premium turned negative.
The market could attempt another rise toward the $85,500 price goal when both CVD stays robust and Open Interest surpasses $6.6B. The price remained undecided in its current position.
BTC price action and prediction
For the price action of Bitcoin, it reached $84,696 meeting resistance formed by joint forces between descending trend lines and the Daily 200EMA.
The Daily 200MA level at $87,740.23 acted as an area of rejection for most of March and early April.
Price has already tried to break this structure multiple times without success, which confirmed an ongoing bearish pressure.
Source: TradingView
If BTC closed above $85,000 while establishing it as support, it could set the stage for reaching $90,608.53. Higher prices through successful range breaks at $90K–$91K would likely restart bullish momentum.
The price may initiate a downward correction toward $82,000 or lower if current rejection persists.
The essentialness of the breakout attempt was still clear, as this intact downward trendline from February continued to exist.
Of course, failure to break this structure would reinforce bear dominance. BTC stood at a decisive zone that could define near-term trajectory.
