In brief
- Bitcoin was flat over 24 hours, clawing back earlier losses to trade at $111,100, CoinGecko data shows.
- Goldman Sachs expects August payrolls to show 60,000 jobs added versus 75,000 forecast, with unemployment rising to 4.3%.
- Markets largely expect a 25-basis-point Fed cut on Sept. 17, though wage and unemployment surprises could sway the outlook.
Bitcoin continues to tread water as traders await U.S. labor market figures on Friday, a key data point that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this month.
The crypto remains little changed on a 24-hour basis, having clawed back losses earlier in the day’s trading session. Bitcoin is hovering near $111,100, CoinGecko data shows.
Goldman Sachs anticipates a weaker August Nonfarm Payrolls report, with a projected addition of only 60,000 jobs against an estimated 75,000, and an expectation that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.3%, its highest level since 2021, according to reporting by TheStreet.
Going into tomorrow’s NFP, the market’s position has a “soft but steady” print supporting a 25-basis-point cut when the Fed meets on September 17, Shawn Young, chief analyst of MEXC Research, told Decrypt.
“Unless we see an unexpected strong upside in jobs and wages, the prevailing expectation is that the Fed will keep going toward easing,” he said.
When asked whether markets had already priced in Friday’s labor data, Young agreed that they had “to a large degree.”
“What’s less certain is the trajectory beyond September,” he said. “Traders are cautiously watching for any wage or unemployment hit that might shift expectations on the pace and depth of any upcoming cuts.”
Bitcoin has continuously tracked equities this year, with macroeconomic data influencing future expectations in the asset’s price as participants attempt to get ahead of weaker U.S. economic growth.
The Fed now faces a challenging position in achieving its dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment, with core inflation still hovering at 3.1%.
According to an August Challenger report on Thursday, U.S. employers reported 85,979 job cuts in August, up 39% from July’s figures of 62,075, marking the month’s highest since 2020.
A “Goldilocks” report on Friday, which would include moderate job gains, steady unemployment, and contained wages, “should fuel risk-on sentiment,” benefiting both equities and crypto, Young said.
A downside shock, however, might spark “initial risk-off moves on growth fears,” followed by recovery as markets price in faster Fed easing.
“Conversely, a strong upside surprise would push yields higher, resulting in the strengthening of the dollar, and pressuring risk assets in the near term,” he said.
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