- Bitcoin whales are buying while smaller investors panic and sell, similar to the 2020 bull cycle
- Data hinted at the growing probability of a potential bottom.
A Bitcoin [BTC] bottom typically forms when several key conditions align. First, it establishes a critical accumulation zone where sell-side liquidity is absorbed by strong hands. This phase often signals a supply squeeze, setting the stage for a powerful rally as demand begins to outpace available supply.
At the time of writing, on-chain data from CryptoQuant seemed to reveal a familiar pattern – Bitcoin whales are aggressively accumulating while smaller investors capitulate.
Does this mean the bottom is in?
$407 billion in sell-off risk – The STH dilemma
Three weeks ago, Bitcoin sent the market into a tailspin as it retraced to its pre-election low of $77k. Despite the broader sentiment swinging between extremes of fear, BTC’s ability to hold above $80k speaks volumes about its underlying strength.
However, this wasn’t just a coincidence. Especially since there has been a sharp spike in the total balance of Bitcoin whales holding 1k–10k BTC (marked in orange).
Source: CryptoQuant
This accumulation has been a key factor in preventing a deeper market correction, suggesting that whale activity is absorbing sell-side pressure and providing the support needed to stabilize prices.
As noted by AMBCrypto’s recent analysis, the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) remains below 1. This is a sign that short-term holders (STHs) with positions older than 155 days have been realizing losses.
Put simply, with Bitcoin down 23% from its all-time high of $109k, a significant pool of buyers’ acquisition value remains well above the press time market value of $83k.
AMBCrypto also found that $95,138 is the average acquisition price for these STHs, where roughly 4.28 million BTC were traded. This equates to approximately $407 billion in potential sell-off risk from these holders.
Should STHs capitulate, we could see a surge in sell pressure. Even so, the question remains – Will whales continue to absorb this pressure and confirm $80k as a strong bottom?
$80k at stake – Will Bitcoin whales confirm the bottom?
Notably, the pattern of Bitcoin whales accumulating while smaller investors panic-sell mirrors previous cycle bottoms, particularly the 2020 cycle.
During that phase, BTC broke above $10k for the first time by mid-Q3, kicking off what came to be known as the “breakout cycle.”
In a striking parallel, CryptoQuant data also showed no signs of Bitcoin whales exiting during the 2020 bull run. This implied that these whales may still be absorbing sell-side pressure. This could lay the groundwork for a major shift in the current cycle.
Right now, there is no significant distribution from these whales. In fact, instead of going dormant, they are actively accumulating. Hence, the chances of a collapse below $77k–$80k due to macroeconomic uncertainty or weak hands exiting are low.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Moreover, U.S. buy orders remain robust while Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to plunge.
If these dynamics align in the coming days, Bitcoin could be on the cusp of confirming a market bottom.
